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28.05.2025 11:44 AM
美元/加元。分析與預測
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美元/加元貨幣對已經連續第三天從今年的最低水平回升,這得益於市場對美元的重新買盤。昨天樂觀的美國經濟數據緩解了人們對經濟衰退的擔憂,並支持了DXY美元指數,這反過來也對美元/加元產生了積極影響。

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然而,各種因素的結合使得看好美元進一步增長的投資者需要謹慎行事。面對不斷惡化的美國財政前景,投資者仍然保持謹慎,預期美聯儲可能在2025年至少降息兩次,這可能會限制美元及美元/加元的上升潛力。交易者正在等待FOMC會議紀要的發布,以獲取關於未來降息路徑的線索並尋找更好的交易機會。

此外,本週預計會公佈一些重要的經濟報告,包括預計在周四和周五發布的第一季度GDP初步數據和個人消費支出(PCE)物價指數。這些數據,加上加拿大的每月GDP和石油價格趨勢,可能會影響加元並在本週下半段為美元/加元提供新的動力。

此外,加拿大高於預期的核心通脹數據削弱了市場對加拿大央行在六月降息的期望。這一點,加上石油價格的適度上漲,可能會支持加元,進而抑制美元/加元的漲幅。因此,在確認現貨價格已經建立短期底部之前,等待更強勁的延續性買盤是明智的做法。

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從技術角度來看,該貨幣對必須首先突破小時圖上的200-SMA才能確認短期底部的形成。只要每日圖表上的震盪指標仍處於負值區域,價格就很難取得可持續的上行結果。最近的阻力位在1.3855;突破該水平可能會打開通往1.3900這一心理關口的路徑。相反,跌破1.3800水平將加速跌向年度低點。

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
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