empty
20.03.2025 11:36 AM
Forecast for GBP/USD on March 20, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair rebounded from the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3003 on Wednesday, followed by a slight decline. Shortly after, the pair returned to 1.3003 and rebounded again. This has led to a reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar, initiating a new downward movement towards 1.2931. A firm consolidation above 1.3003 would increase the likelihood of further growth towards the next level at 1.3151.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave structure is completely clear. The last completed downward wave failed to break the previous low, while the latest upward wave broke the previous peak. This suggests that the bullish trend is still forming. The British pound has shown very strong growth recently, even excessively strong. The fundamental backdrop is not strong enough to justify such aggressive buying by bulls. However, most traders are unwilling to buy the U.S. dollar, regardless of economic data, as Donald Trump continues to impose new tariffs, which will eventually weigh on U.S. economic growth and the global economy.

On Wednesday, the fundamental backdrop did not support the U.S. dollar, despite solid reasons for bearish sentiment. Today, the UK released the unemployment rate (4.4%, unchanged), jobless claims (44.2K vs. 7.9K expected), and wage growth (5.8% vs. 5.9% forecast). The jobless claims report was the most significant, as it greatly exceeded expectations, putting early pressure on the pound. However, I believe that pressure should have emerged even earlier. In a few hours, the MPC meeting results will be announced, where the key factors will be Andrew Bailey's speech and the rate vote outcome. A slightly more dovish tone from Bailey or a more dovish voting result could push the pound lower, a decline that has already been looming for some time.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is still in an uptrend. A significant decline in the pound is unlikely unless the price closes below the ascending channel. The CCI indicator has formed another bearish divergence, which, like the previous one, has not yet impacted bullish positions. A rejection from the 1.2994 level would suggest a potential drop towards the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2861.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Repor

This image is no longer relevant

The "Non-commercial" trader category has turned more bullish over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 12,920, while short positions rose by just 2,301. Bears have lost their market advantage, with the gap between long and short positions now at nearly 30,000 in favor of bulls (95K vs. 66K).

In my view, the pound still has room to decline, but recent developments could shift the market's long-term direction. Over the last three months, the number of long positions decreased from 98K to 94K, while short positions dropped from 78K to 66K. However, the key detail is that over the past six weeks, long positions surged from 59K to 95K, while short contracts fell from 81K to 66K. This period coincides with Trump's six weeks of policies.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the U.K.:

United Kingdom:

  • Unemployment rate (07:00 UTC)
  • Jobless claims change (07:00 UTC)
  • Average hourly earnings change (07:00 UTC)
  • Bank of England interest rate decision (12:00 UTC)
  • MPC rate vote (12:00 UTC)
  • BoE Governor Andrew Bailey speech (12:30 UTC)

United States:

  • Initial jobless claims (12:30 UTC)
  • Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index (12:30 UTC)
  • Existing home sales (14:00 UTC)

Thursday's economic calendar is packed with major releases, particularly from the UK, which could significantly impact market sentiment.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

Sell positions are possible on a rebound from the 1.3003 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.2931 and 1.2865. Buy positions are possible if the pair closes above 1.3003 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.3151.

Fibonacci retracement levels are built from 1.2809 to 1.2100 on the hourly chart and from 1.2299 to 1.3432 on the 4-hour chart.

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Forecast for EUR/USD on June 13, 2025

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement and consolidated above the 100.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1574. However, during the night, a sharp reversal occurred in favor

Samir Klishi 11:52 2025-06-13 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on June 13, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Thursday rebounded from the 1.3520 level, surged to the resistance zone of 1.3611–1.3620, bounced off it twice, and then fell back

Samir Klishi 11:49 2025-06-13 UTC+2

EUR/USD. June 12. A Setback for the Dollar

Good day, dear traders! On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement after rebounding from the support zone of 1.1374–1.1380. It successfully consolidated above the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level

Samir Klishi 10:15 2025-06-12 UTC+2

GBP/USD. June 12. British Economy Falters

Good day, dear traders! On the hourly chart, on Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair reversed in favor of the British pound and consolidated above the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3520

Samir Klishi 10:15 2025-06-12 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Daily Price Movement Crude Oil Commodity Instrument, Thursday June 12, 2025.

If we look at the daily chart of the Crude Oil commodity instrument, there appears to be a Divergence between the price movement of #CL and the Stochastic Oscillator indicator

Arief Makmur 08:10 2025-06-12 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Nasdaq 100 Index, Thursday June 12, 2025.

On the 4-hour chart of the Nasdaq 100 index, there is a divergence between its price movement and the Stochastic Oscillator indicator, especially with the current confirmation of the price

Arief Makmur 08:10 2025-06-12 UTC+2

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for June 12-19, 2025: sell below 1.1500 (21 SMA - 8/8 Murray)

If the euro price falls below 1.1500 in the coming hours, this could be seen as an opportunity to sell. Technically, it appears overbought on the H4 chart and could

Dimitrios Zappas 05:33 2025-06-12 UTC+2

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for June 12-19, 2025: sell below $3,386 (21 SMA - 7/8 Murray)

The XAU/USD trend remains bullish as long as the price consolidates above 3,331. Therefore, it would be prudent to buy gold as long as the price consolidates above 3,359, where

Dimitrios Zappas 05:32 2025-06-12 UTC+2

EUR/USD Forecast for June 12, 2025

The U.S. inflation data released on Wednesday stirred the markets: the dollar index dropped by 0.47%, WTI oil surged by 5.54%, gold rose by 1.27%, and 5-year U.S. Treasury yields

Laurie Bailey 04:40 2025-06-12 UTC+2

GBP/USD Forecast for June 12, 2025

On Wednesday, the British pound successfully avoided a decline below technical support levels, reversing upward from them. The price rebounded from the MACD indicator line on the daily chart, while

Laurie Bailey 04:40 2025-06-12 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.