empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
20.05.2025 12:40 AM
The Fed Allows Only One Rate Cut in 2025
Open trading account Open demo account

This image is no longer relevant

The Federal Reserve continues to remain silent this year. While the European Central Bank has already cut interest rates three times and the Bank of England twice, the FOMC is holding off on easing, fearing a resurgence in inflation. As I noted in previous analyses, the Fed has the legal ability to strictly adhere to its mandates without prioritizing economic growth. Indeed, the economy matters, but the current slowdown isn't the fault of the Fed nor any global crisis or economic catastrophe. As a result, Jerome Powell and his colleagues pay no attention to Donald Trump's criticism or market expectations for monetary easing.

One of the Fed's governors, Raphael Bostic, suggests that there may be just one rate cut before the end of the year. Bostic stated that the U.S. economy is not heading for a recession, but growth will slow. In 2025, GDP growth might be in the range of 0.5%–1%. He added that uncertainty and consumer apprehension about the future are prompting Americans to cut spending and save "for a rainy day." The new trade policies out of the White House force businesses to be highly cautious and delay key decisions, such as expanding operations or investing.

"At this time, I believe it is appropriate to reduce the rate once because, in my view, uncertainty in the U.S. economy is unlikely to resolve quickly," said Bostic.

Jerome Powell has previously reiterated similar reasoning for the Fed's reluctance to move forward with rate cuts.

This image is no longer relevant

What if the Fed weren't concerned about inflation and had already cut rates in 2025? Demand for the U.S. dollar would likely be even lower. The recent decline in the dollar occurred despite the ECB easing and the Fed maintaining its current stance. That is, at a time when diverging central bank policies should theoretically support the dollar, it continued to slide.

Wave Analysis of EUR/USD

Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the pair continues to form an upward wave structure. In the near term, the wave count will depend entirely on the position and actions of the U.S. president. This is important to keep in mind always.

Wave 3 of the current bullish segment has started, and its targets could stretch into the 1.25 area. Achieving those levels will depend solely on Trump's trade and economic policy. At this point, wave 2 within wave 3 may be complete. Therefore, I consider buy positions with targets above 1.1572, which aligns with the 423.6% Fibonacci extension. However, a full de-escalation of the trade war could reverse this bullish trend — even though there are currently no technical signs of such a reversal.

This image is no longer relevant

Wave Analysis of GBP/USD

The wave structure of GBP/USD has changed. We are now dealing with a bullish impulse wave. Unfortunately, under Donald Trump's leadership, the markets may see a string of shocks and trend reversals against any wave or technical analysis.

Wave 3 is developing, with targets at 1.3541 and 1.3714. Therefore, I maintain a bullish outlook, as the market does not intend to reverse this trend.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex patterns are hard to trade and often change.
  2. If you're uncertain about the market, don't enter.
  3. There is never 100% certainty about price direction. Always use stop-loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can be combined with other methods and trading strategies.
Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Crypto-currencies
Trading tips for crypto market on June 27 (North American session) Bitcoin made another attempt to return to the $108,000 level, but failed to hold it and corrected lower, falling below the $107,000 mark, a move that could lead
Miroslaw Bawulski
15:47 2025-06-27 +02:00
3160
Forecast
USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on June 27th (U.S. Session) Trade Review and Recommendations for the Japanese Yen The price test of 144.59 occurred when the MACD had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward
Jakub Novak
13:20 2025-06-27 +02:00
2950
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

The Yen Has Lost Its Bullish Momentum

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the Tokyo region declined in June from 3.4% to 3.1% year-over-year, marking the first signal so far that may indicate a slowdown in price
Kuvat Raharjo 12:21 2025-06-27 UTC+2

EUR/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The EUR/JPY pair is regaining positive momentum during today's trading session, reversing its recent decline.The euro continues to benefit from the prevailing sentiment of selling the U.S. dollar
Irina Yanina 12:17 2025-06-27 UTC+2

Inflation in Canada Remains Too High – USD/CAD May Accelerate Its Decline

Inflation in Canada remains too high to expect a rate cut by the Bank of Canada at its upcoming meeting. In April, inflation sharply slowed to 1.7% y/y, and most
Kuvat Raharjo 11:16 2025-06-27 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold is drawing renewed selling interest today after breaking below the key $3300 level. Traders are awaiting the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which
Irina Yanina 10:47 2025-06-27 UTC+2

PCE Index Data Unlikely to Significantly Impact Market Dynamics (Potential for Renewed Growth in EUR/USD and Bitcoin)

The easing of tensions in the markets, following a pause in the military conflict in the Middle East, supports the return of the previous paradigm—an increase in demand for stocks
Pati Gani 09:52 2025-06-27 UTC+2

The Market Is Off the Leash

Greed has returned to the markets. While professionals warn about the need for caution amid geopolitical uncertainty, trade wars, and the state of the U.S. economy, retail investors are once
Marek Petkovich 09:16 2025-06-27 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on June 27? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are relatively few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Friday. Some experts refer to the PCE indicator as "important" and "the Fed's favorite," but we do not share that view
Paolo Greco 07:02 2025-06-27 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – June 27: History Doesn't Repeat Itself

The GBP/USD currency pair continued its strong upward movement throughout Thursday. Since the beginning of the week, the U.S. dollar has lost "only" 330 pips. As we've previously stated
Paolo Greco 03:41 2025-06-27 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – June 27: Can Trump Balance the Trade Deficit?

The EUR/USD currency pair is in a "free rise" (similar to the term "free fall"). The dollar is once again plunging into the abyss, just as we repeatedly warned. It's
Paolo Greco 03:41 2025-06-27 UTC+2

Powell, Trump, and Everyone Else

What will change with the arrival of a new Federal Reserve Chair? This is a rather important question, and the answer to it may already have implications for the U.S
Chin Zhao 00:08 2025-06-27 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 04:00 UTC--5
The Yen Has Lost Its Bullish Momentum
12:21 2025-06-27
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 11:00 UTC--5
Trading Signals for EUR/USD for June 27-30, 2025: sell below 1.1750 (21 SMA - 8/8 Murray)
18:10 2025-06-27
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 11:00 UTC--5
Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for June 27-30, 2025: buy above $3,250 or sell below $3,320 (rebound - 6/8 Murray)
18:12 2025-06-27
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 01:00 UTC--5
The Market Is Off the Leash
09:16 2025-06-27
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 03:00 UTC--5
Inflation in Canada Remains Too High – USD/CAD May Accelerate Its Decline
11:16 2025-06-27
Fundamental analysis
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.