empty
InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing
InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
09.04.2025 10:36 AM
The Market Invites a "Fools' Rally"
Open trading account Open demo account

104%! Who's next? The stakes in the U.S.–China trade war are skyrocketing, causing the S&P 500 to slide deeper and deeper. And this came right after a strong opening and a 4% intraday rally on rumors that the White House was ready to negotiate with other countries—except China. Donald Trump has named his main adversary, and Beijing's readiness to go all the way unnerves U.S. stock fans.

When the White House introduced a 10% tariff on imports from China and later added another 10%, China remained silent. But an additional 34% crossed the line. Beijing responded symmetrically, which provoked Trump's wrath and threats to raise tariffs by another 50%. The announcement that the U.S. administration was moving in that direction sent the S&P 500 plunging.

U.S. Tariff Revenues

This image is no longer relevant

According to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the U.S. intends to raise around 600 billion dollars in its first year of tariff implementation. However, Bloomberg analysis suggests that the figure will likely be half at best and decline as U.S. imports shrink by a third due to the tariffs.

The benefits of protectionism appear negligible compared to the disruption of supply chains, slowdown in global trade, declining global GDP, weaker U.S. economy, and rising inflation. The stock market is sending a clear signal that the downside outweighs the upside. The S&P 500's drop is the result of a dramatic shift in sentiment—from denial of recession to sudden belief in it.

The latest AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) survey recorded the highest number of bears since March 2009—even before America's "Liberation Day." So, the market may soon post a new anti-record. Still, any attempt to buy the S&P 500 purely because of extreme bearish sentiment could turn into a "fools' rally." We saw a similar case in 2008 during the VIX spike, when the broad market index jumped by 20% between October and November, only to lose 25% over the next four months.

U.S. Bond Yield Dynamics

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

There's still room for the S&P 500 to fall, and a rise in Treasury yields could be the next trigger for a sell-off. Yields have been swinging back and forth as investors struggle to determine what the Federal Reserve will do amid stagflation. Meanwhile, China's willingness to escalate the trade war raises the risk that it could dump U.S. debt holdings. Higher yields on Treasuries would be another nail in the coffin for the broad stock index.

Technically, the S&P 500 continues its downtrend on the daily chart. A break below the pivot support at 4910 would justify building on short positions initiated from the 5200 rebound. Conversely, a bounce would allow the continuation of the existing buy-the-dip strategy on the broad index.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Crypto-currencies
Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on July 25 Bitcoin collapsed, testing the 115,000 mark, while Ethereum did not face any such issues. It's clear that the sharp drop in Bitcoin is nothing more than profit-taking
Miroslaw Bawulski
09:13 2025-07-25 +02:00
1120
Forecast
USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on July 25. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades The test of the 146.75 level coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had just started to move upward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point
Jakub Novak
08:52 2025-07-25 +02:00
1225
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Will Trump Succeed in Forcing Powell to Do His Bidding? (Potential for a Bitcoin Decline and a Rise in #NDX)

The U.S. president is fully implementing his aggressive policy toward everyone and everything — both in foreign and domestic affairs. While his actions toward trade partners are more or less
Pati Gani 09:57 2025-07-25 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on July 25? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are relatively few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Friday, but all of them are quite important. In Germany, the IFO Business Climate Index will be released — the least significant
Paolo Greco 06:43 2025-07-25 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – July 25: No Sign of De-escalation Yet

On Thursday, the GBP/USD currency pair pulled back slightly, but this strengthening of the dollar has no real impact on the overall picture. The British pound has corrected in recent
Paolo Greco 04:17 2025-07-25 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – July 25: The ECB Meeting Did Not Change the Balance of Power Between the Dollar and the Euro

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to move upward on Thursday. There were several macroeconomic events scheduled for the day, and they did provoke a small market reaction
Paolo Greco 04:17 2025-07-25 UTC+2

EUR/USD: ECB's "Hawkish Pause" and Conflicting Macroeconomic Reports

The results of the ECB July meeting provided slight support for the euro. However, contradictory macroeconomic reports and anticipation of the outcome of the US-EU negotiations played a restraining role
Irina Manzenko 00:50 2025-07-25 UTC+2

The Euro Outsmarted the "Bears"

There was no "sell the fact" reaction. One of the reasons behind the recent EUR/USD rally was the expectation that the deposit rate would be held at 2% following
Marek Petkovich 00:50 2025-07-25 UTC+2

Will There Be a Deal Between the EU and the US?

The European Union has ultimately made a move toward Donald Trump. However, calling it a compromise would be inaccurate, as it is Brussels—not Washington—that is largely conceding. Nevertheless, media reports
Chin Zhao 20:23 2025-07-24 UTC+2

EUR/USD – Analysis and Forecast

Today, the pair is retreating from its daily high. According to European Commission officials, the EU and the US are close to reaching an agreement that would include 15% tariffs
Irina Yanina 14:00 2025-07-24 UTC+2

USD/JPY – Analysis and Forecast

Today, the pair broke a three-day losing streak, as Japan's domestic political uncertainty, disappointing manufacturing PMI data, and prevailing risk appetite remain key factors limiting the yen's growth
Irina Yanina 13:55 2025-07-24 UTC+2

XAU/USD – Analysis and Forecast

Currently, gold continues to lose ground. Recent news of progress in trade negotiations between the United States and Japan, as well as reports that the US and the European Union
Irina Yanina 12:23 2025-07-24 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 21:00 2025-07-25 UTC--5
EUR/USD Forecast for July 25, 2025
05:06 2025-07-25
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 19:00 2025-07-25 UTC--5
EUR/USD Overview – July 25: The ECB Meeting Did Not Change the Balance of Power Between the Dollar and the Euro
04:17 2025-07-25
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 19:00 2025-07-25 UTC--5
GBP/USD Overview – July 25: No Sign of De-escalation Yet
04:17 2025-07-25
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 21:00 2025-07-25 UTC--5
GBP/USD Forecast for July 25, 2025
05:06 2025-07-25
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 19:00 2025-07-25 UTC--5
Trading Recommendations and Trade Breakdown for EUR/USD on July 25: The Market Wanders Aimlessly
04:17 2025-07-25
Trading plan
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.