Forex Analysis & Reviews: 30.04.2025 - U.S. GDP and PCE Data...

InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing

This section features the most important information about trading with InstaForex. We provide both analysis from leading experts for experienced traders and articles on trading conditions for beginners. Our services will help increase your profit potential.

Become Trader

Account Opening

See also

Trading Conditions

Forex Analytics

Charts

This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.

Start as Beginner

How to start trading

Useful information

Training and recordings

InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.

Become Investor

PAMM System

ForexCopy System

Passive investments

OYS account

Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.

Become Partner

Main Page

Partner Area

Advantages for Affiliates

Registration

This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.

All Promo Campaigns

Bonuses

Contests

Events

Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.

Full details

Forums

We are in social networks

Forex humour

Forex Portal

InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.

Learn More

History

Why Choose Us

InstaSport

Regulation

Company News

Awards

InstaForex Stars

InstaForex Offline

Headquarters

Key documents

Social Responsibility

InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing

30.04.2025 09:48 AM

U.S. GDP and PCE Data Unlikely to Drastically Shift Market Conditions (Possible Resumption of #NDX and #SPX Growth)

Markets are already fatigued by the chaos unfolding in Donald Trump's mind and among his followers. Everything remains extremely unclear, so market participants are now fully focused on today's important economic data releases, especially from the United States.

The primary focus will be on U.S. Q1 GDP figures and inflation indicators. According to the consensus forecast, the American economy is expected to experience a significant slowdown in the first quarter compared to last year. GDP growth is projected to slow from 2.4% to just 0.2% — a figure so low it falls within the margin of statistical error, hinting at the real risk of the U.S. economy sliding into full-scale recession with all the associated consequences.

Today, markets will shift attention away from the now tiresome tariff narrative and focus instead on the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for March. The indicator is expected to show a noticeable year-over-year decline from 2.5% to 2.2% and a 0.0% monthly change versus a 0.3% increase in February. The core PCE index is also expected to fall year-over-year from 2.8% to 2.6%, with monthly growth dropping from 0.4% to 0.1%. In addition, income and spending figures will also be of interest. Personal income is forecast to fall from 0.8% to 0.4%, while spending is expected to rise from 0.4% to 0.6%.

How will the markets and the dollar react to this important data?

A GDP decline could increase demand for Treasuries as investors seek safe-haven assets. At the same time, the U.S. dollar may come under localized pressure if the inflation data confirm a drop in the PCE index. The main reason, as previously noted, would be rising expectations of a possible 0.25% Federal Reserve rate cut in either May or June. In such a scenario, the U.S. stock market could gain support, as anticipation of renewed Fed rate cuts would fuel demand for equities.

Any dollar weakening is likely to be limited. The Dollar Index might fall below 99.00 but will likely remain above 98.00. This is due to expected eurozone disinflation, which could force the European Central Bank and the Bank of England to lower rates again, thereby balancing out the narrowing interest rate differentials with the Fed.

Despite the importance of today's data, it may have limited influence on asset prices, drowned out by the ongoing chaos surrounding Trump. Uncertainty remains the dominant market force.

Daily Forecast:

#SPX

The CFD on the S&P 500 futures is trading slightly above 5525.80. A decline in the PCE index would increase the likelihood of Fed rate cuts, which supports U.S. equities. On this momentum, the contract may resume its rise toward 5637.32 and eventually 5783.00. A potential buy level is 5557.04.

#NDX

The CFD on the NASDAQ 100 futures is trading slightly below 19455.00. A drop in the PCE index could serve as a basis for renewed Fed rate cuts, supporting U.S. equities. Against this backdrop, the contract could resume growth toward 20000.00 and 20330.00. A potential buy level is 19537.20.

You have already liked this post today

*Disclaimer: The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.