empty
12.05.2025 09:18 AM
The Market Will Face Reality

How quickly things change on the financial markets! Before America's Liberation Day, investors viewed the 10% universal import tariff as disastrous. Now, it's seen as the most favorable option. The S&P 500 has climbed 14% from its April lows, erasing all losses since the imposition of the highest U.S. tariffs since the early 20th century. But is this justified, considering the tariff burden remains at very high levels despite being reduced?

Most of the spring rally in the S&P 500 was emotionally driven. Investors were buying the rumor that the April 2 tariffs were the peak and would soon be lowered, making it an "ideal" time to buy stocks. According to Bank of America, the time has come to "sell the fact," meaning the upward movement of the broad equity index is likely over.

This is supported by Bloomberg's model tracking S&P 500 corporate earnings, which has now moved into the red zone, indicating a potential deterioration in financial results. Historically, this does not bode well for equities. In seven previous cases when the index entered the red zone, the S&P 500 dropped by an average of 5.6% over the following 12 months.

S&P 500 Companies' Expected Earnings Trajectory

This image is no longer relevant

This seems quite plausible. Donald Trump believes that reducing tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 80% would be "fair"—but only if China reopens access to its markets for U.S. companies. According to Bloomberg, S&P 500 companies on average earn 6.1% of their revenue from selling goods in China or to Chinese companies. Beijing's 125% retaliatory tariffs would significantly worsen their financial performance.

Bilateral trade between the U.S. and China is valued at $700 billion. China has invested $1.4 trillion in the U.S. An escalation of the trade war would be harmful not only to the largest Asian economy, whose exports are already suffering, but also to the U.S. Growing recession risks would exert serious pressure on the S&P 500.

China's Export, Import, and Trade Balance Dynamics

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

In this context, statements from White House officials about progress in U.S.-China negotiations—and a potential agreement whose details may be announced on Monday—sounded like music to the ears of stock market bulls. Still, the market has long been driven by emotion. Is it now time to face the truth? The trade war threatens both economic growth and corporate profits. Against this backdrop, the stock market rally appears excessive.

Technically, on the daily chart, the S&P 500 shows a high probability of forming a bearish reversal pattern known as Anti-Turtles, highlighted by a candlestick with a long upper shadow. A drop below 5635 would trigger a sell signal for the broad index.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

GBP/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

During the European session on Monday, the GBP/JPY currency pair is approaching the 198.30 level. The pair finds some support from UK housing data: in June, house prices rose

Irina Yanina 19:40 2025-07-07 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Geopolitical Risks May Provide Additional Support to the Safe-Haven Precious Metal

Today, gold is displaying an intraday bearish tone despite rebounding from the $3300 level. Strengthening demand for the US dollar remains the primary factor pressuring gold, limiting its upward movement

Irina Yanina 19:09 2025-07-07 UTC+2

Bitcoin leads turbulent life

Beneath the calm surface of BTC/USD lie turbulent underwater currents that are reshaping the cryptocurrency market structure. Still waters run deep. On the surface, it seems that life

Marek Petkovich 15:48 2025-07-07 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The USD/JPY pair maintains a bullish bias, staying above the psychological level of 145.00, reflecting intraday selling pressure on the Japanese yen amid U.S. dollar strength. Investors are concerned that

Irina Yanina 12:59 2025-07-07 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

On Monday, the USD/CAD pair continued its upward movement for the second day in a row. This rise is driven by a combination of factors. Crude oil prices initially declined

Irina Yanina 12:39 2025-07-07 UTC+2

GBP/USD. Analysis and Forecast

The GBP/USD pair began the new week attempting to hold the key psychological level of 1.3600. However, amid mixed fundamental factors, it has not been successful so far. The British

Irina Yanina 12:14 2025-07-07 UTC+2

Three days left to avert tariffs

As July 9, the deadline set by Trump, approaches, the United States main trading partners spent the weekend rushing to finalize trade agreements or lobbying for more time. Meanwhile, Treasury

Jakub Novak 11:24 2025-07-07 UTC+2

Investors see no alternatives

Uncertainty is commonly the enemy of investment, but not in 2025. A double dose of unpredictability – from geopolitics and White House tariffs – hasn't stopped the S&P 500 from

Marek Petkovich 11:17 2025-07-07 UTC+2

What to Watch on July 7th? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Very few macroeconomic publications are scheduled for Monday, and none of them are significant. Let us recall that Friday was practically a semi-holiday, as the United States celebrated Independence

Paolo Greco 08:29 2025-07-07 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview on July 7, 2025

The GBP/USD currency pair remained nearly flat throughout Friday, as the U.S. trading session was essentially inactive on that day. There were no macroeconomic publications, and the market chose

Paolo Greco 07:25 2025-07-07 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.