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11.06.2025 06:10 AM
What to Pay Attention to on June 11? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners
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Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

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Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Wednesday. Therefore, any sharp reversal or strengthening of movement may only occur at the start of the U.S. trading session, when the May inflation report for the U.S. is released. Although inflation currently does not influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, this report remains fairly important for the market. The Fed is awaiting final decisions on U.S. import tariffs and clarity on trade relations with roughly half the world. Until there is more certainty in this area, the Fed is not planning to cut its key rate.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

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There are no notable fundamental events on Wednesday. The next Fed meeting is scheduled for next week, so Fed officials are in a blackout period and cannot comment on monetary policy. In the Eurozone, European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane is scheduled to speak, but since the central bank's last meeting was held very recently, no new information is expected from him.

We believe that the trade war remains the key issue for the market, and there are currently no signs of its resolution. The U.S. dollar may continue to decline if trade agreements with most countries are not signed before the end of the preferential tariff period, which ends in about a month. The dollar could fall even without new tariffs from Trump, as the market's sentiment toward the U.S. president and his policies remains extremely negative. Donald Trump is known for making unpredictable decisions, not only in international trade.

Conclusions:

On the third trading day of the week, both currency pairs will likely move based on technical factors for most of the day. The British pound may continue heading toward the 1.3443 level, while the euro is expected to remain range-bound. Only the U.S. inflation report or news from Trump could trigger a sharp and unexpected market move today.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

  1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
  2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
  3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
  4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
  5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
  6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
  7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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