empty
20.06.2025 09:49 AM
Donald Trump – A Mastermind of Geopolitical Uncertainty (A Potential Correction in Oil and Gold Prices)

Six months into Donald Trump's presidency, it seems he has already thoroughly exhausted the world with his "brilliant" initiatives, groundbreaking actions aimed at making America great again, and his vivid embodiment of geopolitical uncertainty.

Trump's constant maneuvering—both domestically and internationally, in economic and geopolitical arenas—creates a persistent state of unpredictability regarding the outcomes of his actions. His recent admission that he makes final decisions on important matters just before their implementation makes it nearly impossible to forecast potential developments. From an investment perspective, this is a highly negative factor. In times of strategic uncertainty, it's difficult to calculate likely scenarios. For instance, not long ago, Trump claimed to favor a peaceful resolution to the Middle East conflict, but he later openly supported Tel Aviv in its war with Iran, calling for Iran's surrender.

The same applies to his actions in domestic and geo-economic policy. The trade wars he initiated only partially resolved American issues. The main trading "partner" and economic adversary, China, has not capitulated and continues to resist, inflicting significant economic damage on the U.S.

Naturally, financial markets cannot remain unaffected. The war in the Middle East has driven up crude oil prices, and Trump's promises of direct U.S. strikes on key Iranian military and economic sites have further pushed prices higher. Although prices are undergoing a noticeable correction due to the lack of actual follow-through on Trump's threats, the risk of crisis escalation remains.

Investors have learned to discount the 45th president's promises by at least half; however, any moment those promises could materialize, potentially leading to serious consequences and even an expanded conflict in the Middle East.

Right now, we are seeing a corrective pullback in gold prices—a traditional barometer of market tension. Prices are falling due to the current lack of action on Trump's threats to strike Iran. Trump keeps the situation in suspense, making his opponents nervous. While this may work in the world of business that he's familiar with, it doesn't translate well into politics when facing strong adversaries.

Over the past six months, market participants have come to understand Trump's playbook and have started using it to their advantage. They react to his loud proclamations, and then, when those actions either don't materialize or prove limited in scope, they reverse their positions. A recent example: bold promises of missile and bomb attacks on Iran drove oil demand higher, but once the strikes failed to materialize and Trump began dodging with vague statements about timing, oil prices started to correct downward. Along with gold's retreat, this now serves as a clear indicator of what markets truly expect from Trump.

What Can Be Expected on Markets on the Last Trading Day of the Week?

Oil and gold prices are likely to continue correcting downward until Trump sends a new signal. If no such signal comes, both may continue falling into Monday—unless, of course, something new occurs in the Middle East or Trump makes another absurd announcement. The cryptocurrency market, like the dollar, will remain under pressure. Overall, the previous market trends are expected to persist.

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

Daily Forecast

CL (WTI Crude Oil)

The U.S. benchmark WTI is consolidating above the support level of 74.65. A drop below this could lead to a corrective decline toward the 23% Fibonacci level at 73.45 or even further to the target of 72.85. A divergence between price and oscillators is visible on the chart, signaling a potential downward price move. The 74.40 level could serve as a sell trigger.

Gold

Gold prices are under pressure due to Trump's unfulfilled threats regarding Iran. After breaching the 3341.50 level, this could lead to a downward correction toward 3295.00. The 3335.35 mark may serve as a trigger point for short positions.

Pati Gani,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, gold remains under pressure; however, several factors are limiting further decline. Expectations that the tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump will support inflation in the United States

Irina Yanina 19:23 2025-07-08 UTC+2

USD/CHF. Analysis and Forecast

On Tuesday, the USD/CHF pair is under selling pressure, pulling back from the weekly high near the key psychological level of 0.8000. This decline is driven by a combination

Irina Yanina 12:47 2025-07-08 UTC+2

What to Watch on July 8th? Fundamental Events Overview for Beginners

No macroeconomic publications are scheduled for Tuesday. However, it cannot be said that the market was idle on Monday despite the lack of key macroeconomic events—there was still enough news

Paolo Greco 11:19 2025-07-08 UTC+2

Markets given breathing room as tariff deadline pushed to August

No need to panic. The market is simply cautious about the White House's return to the tariffs announced on America's Liberation Day. Donald Trump sent letters to various countries specifying

Marek Petkovich 10:14 2025-07-08 UTC+2

GBP/USD Pair Overview on July 8, 2025

The GBP/USD pair declined slightly on Monday, but it's still premature to speak of a downtrend. From a technical standpoint, the pair remains below the moving average line; however

Paolo Greco 08:55 2025-07-08 UTC+2

EUR/USD Review on July 8, 2025

The EUR/USD currency pair traded with a downward bias throughout Monday, although there were likely no solid reasons for the dollar to strengthen again. Let's recall that over the weekend

Paolo Greco 08:37 2025-07-08 UTC+2

GBP/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

During the European session on Monday, the GBP/JPY currency pair is approaching the 198.30 level. The pair finds some support from UK housing data: in June, house prices rose

Irina Yanina 19:40 2025-07-07 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Geopolitical Risks May Provide Additional Support to the Safe-Haven Precious Metal

Today, gold is displaying an intraday bearish tone despite rebounding from the $3300 level. Strengthening demand for the US dollar remains the primary factor pressuring gold, limiting its upward movement

Irina Yanina 19:09 2025-07-07 UTC+2

Bitcoin leads turbulent life

Beneath the calm surface of BTC/USD lie turbulent underwater currents that are reshaping the cryptocurrency market structure. Still waters run deep. On the surface, it seems that life

Marek Petkovich 15:48 2025-07-07 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The USD/JPY pair maintains a bullish bias, staying above the psychological level of 145.00, reflecting intraday selling pressure on the Japanese yen amid U.S. dollar strength. Investors are concerned that

Irina Yanina 12:59 2025-07-07 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.