empty
25.06.2025 12:32 PM
BTC/USD Analysis on June 25, 2025

The wave pattern on the 4-hour BTC/USD chart remains generally clear. We observed a corrective downward formation that completed near the $75,000 level. After that, a strong upward movement began, which can be viewed as the start of an impulsive bullish trend. The second wave of this structure was very small and unconvincing, which supports the interpretation of the current segment as an impulsive one. If this is correct, then the trend is still missing a decisive wave 5, the peak of which should exceed that of wave 3. Based on this, I expect one more final upward impulse. A successful breakout above the 100.0% Fibonacci level would indicate a continuation of the bullish movement, which under certain conditions could take on a more extended form.

The news background supports Bitcoin — though inconsistently. I'd say market participants tend to interpret any news in favor of the leading cryptocurrency, or simply ignore the news altogether and just keep buying. What we are seeing is a bullish trend based on emotions, demand, and belief in a sky-high future value of Bitcoin. Moreover, the surge from $75,000 to $111,000 bears all the hallmarks of a "pump." And when the pump ends, a drop usually follows.

In recent weeks, BTC/USD has been actively forming a downward corrective wave structure. We are currently observing a classic three-wave pattern, which could be part of the internal structure of wave 4. I would like to point out that in recent months, Bitcoin has been rising sharply and quickly, while its corrections have been long and slow. This is one of the key characteristics of an impulsive uptrend. Wave 4 could evolve into a more complex structure, such as a five-wave a-b-c-d-e formation. However, for now, I assume the market has entered the stage of constructing wave 5.

This wave could be of any size. It might only slightly exceed the peak of wave 3 or form a clearly defined five-wave structure. In my view, the target around $119,600 — corresponding to the 127.2% Fibonacci extension — looks logical and convincing.

I believe a more accurate target will become clear in the next few days. Wave 5 will either take the form of a clear five-wave pattern or a single wave. As the price approaches $111,000 per coin, we will be able to better assess the extent of this wave.

The end of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East also played a role. Market participants' willingness to take on risk has increased again, which inevitably impacts Bitcoin — the riskiest of all assets. However, how long the market can run on this "fuel" remains unclear. In my opinion, further escalations of the conflict are possible, but the U.S. is unlikely to participate in them again.

Overall Conclusions

Based on the BTC/USD analysis, I conclude that the formation of a bullish wave structure continues, though it has a very unusual nature and foundation. The recent sharp rise in Bitcoin wasn't driven by news — and historically, buyer strength tends to run out around the $111,000 level. Ignoring wave analysis for a moment, one could argue that the market is preparing for a new downward trend segment. The corrective wave sequence within wave 4 may still evolve into a five-wave structure, but wave 5 is needed regardless — which means Bitcoin is likely to revisit the $111,000 level.

On the higher wave scale, the upward trend is still in progress, though its internal wave structure remains ambiguous due to the near-complete absence of corrective waves.

Key Principles of My Analysis

  1. Wave structures should be simple and easy to understand. Complex structures are hard to trade and often prone to change.
  2. If you're unsure about market conditions, it's better to stay out.
  3. There is never 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Litecoin is attempting to test its nearest resistance level, Friday, July 11, 2025.

Litecoin, Friday, July 11, 2025. Litecoin managed to break through and close above its pivot level. Although there is potential for a correction, positive fundamental factors provide an opportunity

Arief Makmur 08:00 2025-07-11 UTC+2

Trading tips for crypto market on July 10 (North American session)

Bitcoin and Ethereum traded higher today during the European session, which indicates that yesterday's purchases were not a one-time event and that buyers are still active in the market. This

Miroslaw Bawulski 16:25 2025-07-10 UTC+2

Crypto market shows extremely low volatility

Bitcoin volatility has dropped to a historic low, while Bitcoin itself is trading within 2% of its all-time high. The lack of willingness to buy at current prices could become

Jakub Novak 13:46 2025-07-09 UTC+2

Crypto market resilient despite dollar volatility

BTC/USD is rising again today after yesterday's dip, overall maintaining its bullish momentum. Fundamentally, conditions continue to support BTC/USD growth in the medium term. The global economic and market landscape

Jurij Tolin 14:14 2025-07-08 UTC+2

Japan's digital bank by Metaplanet

While Bitcoin stubbornly refuses to decline, fueled by massive demand from ETF funds, the Japanese firm Metaplanet is planning to use its Bitcoin reserves to create the first digital bank

Jakub Novak 13:46 2025-07-08 UTC+2

Trading tips for crypto market on July 8

Both Bitcoin and Ethereum remain on a sound footing, poised to continue a bullish trend. As long as BTC continues trading above the $105,000 mark, the odds of further growth

Miroslaw Bawulski 12:16 2025-07-08 UTC+2

Clarity act on digital asset market gains support

Bitcoin and Ethereum have returned to the channels in which they spent most of last week. While Bitcoin has yet to break above the $109,000 mark, the prospects

Jakub Novak 11:00 2025-07-08 UTC+2

Elon Musk's America party advocates for Bitcoin and digital assets

The recently formed political party, America Party led by Elon Musk, will support Bitcoin. This was announced by the Tesla CEO himself on social media. "Fiat is hopeless

Jakub Novak 15:31 2025-07-07 UTC+2

Bitcoin will test its Support.1 after successfully breaking through and closing below the Uptrendline intraday chart, Friday, July 4, 2024.

Bitcoin – Friday, July 4, 2025. With an inflow into the Bitcoin ETF around USD$ 50 billion, it shows strong interest from investors, thus strengthening the legitimacy of this cryptocurrency

Arief Makmur 07:58 2025-07-04 UTC+2

Ripple has the potential to correct and weaken down to the Support level of 2.1924, Friday, July 4, 2025.

Ripple – Friday, July 4, 2025 Friendly regulatory pressure and the case with the SEC that seems to be stopped and open interest in the derivatives market that has jumped

Arief Makmur 07:58 2025-07-04 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.