Forex Analysis & Reviews: 26.06.2025 - GBP/USD. June 26th. Will the...

26.06.2025 10:48 AM

GBP/USD. June 26th. Will the U.S. GDP Report Change Anything?

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Wednesday secured a position above the resistance zone of 1.3611–1.3633 and continued its upward movement toward the next Fibonacci level of 200.0% at 1.3749. A rebound from this level would support the U.S. dollar and lead to a moderate decline, but bears remain largely absent from the market. A firm hold above 1.3749 would increase the likelihood of continued growth toward the next corrective level at 1.3937.

The wave pattern suggests the end of the "bearish" trend, which lasted just about a week. The last completed downward wave barely broke below the previous low, while the new upward wave easily surpassed the previous peak. Bearish traders are once again retreating, as the Middle East conflict has quickly de-escalated and the dollar still lacks significant support. Trump's trade war continues to have a negative impact on the U.S. currency.

There was little news on Wednesday, but bullish traders continue to advance for the third straight day with strong momentum. News about the progress of trade negotiations doesn't arrive daily, but currently, the absence of news is seen as negative for the market. The three-month period of low tariffs is nearing its end, and only one trade deal has been signed so far. Traders are reasonably concluding that agreements with all countries are unlikely to be reached on time, and therefore expect tariffs on imports from many countries to increase starting July 9. Notably, there has been no progress in negotiations with China and the European Union.

Today, the U.S. will release its final Q1 GDP report. The previous two estimates are no longer relevant. Traders expect the figure to be weak, though it could come in slightly above or below -0.2%. In any case, the U.S. economy saw a significant slowdown in Q1 2025.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the pound and continued its upward movement toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3795. Although bears managed to break below the ascending trend channel, the lack of a supportive news backdrop prevented them from building on the momentum. Currently, further growth can be expected on both charts. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became slightly less bullish over the latest reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 4,794, while short positions increased by 3,983. However, bears have long since lost their advantage in the market and currently have no real chance of success. The gap between long and short positions stands at 43,000 in favor of the bulls: 106,000 versus 63,000.

In my view, the pound still faces downside risks, but developments in 2025 have fundamentally shifted the market's long-term outlook. Over the past three months, long positions have increased from 65,000 to 106,000, while short positions have fallen from 76,000 to 63,000. Under Donald Trump, confidence in the dollar has weakened, and COT reports indicate that traders are reluctant to buy the greenback. Thus, regardless of the broader news context, the dollar continues to decline amid developments surrounding Trump.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and U.K.:

United Kingdom – Speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey (11:00 UTC)
United States – Durable Goods Orders data (12:30 UTC)
United States – Final GDP for Q1 (12:30 UTC)

Thursday's economic calendar includes three notable events. The influence of the news background on market sentiment may be present but is likely to be limited.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Short positions may be considered today if the pair rebounds from the 1.3749 level, targeting the 1.3611–1.3633 zone. I previously recommended buying above the 1.3425–1.3444 level with targets at 1.3527, the 1.3611–1.3633 level, and 1.3749. These positions can still be held, and a breakout above 1.3749 would set the next target at 1.3937.

Fibonacci Levels: