empty
27.06.2025 05:13 AM
EUR/USD Forecast for June 27, 2025

EUR/USD

Yesterday, concerning data was released from the U.S. GDP for Q1 contracted by 0.5% compared to the expected -0.2%. Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation for the same period rose from 2.6% to 3.5% (vs. forecast of 3.4%), real consumer spending increased only 0.5% against a forecast of 1.2%, and corporate profits declined by 3.3%. The trade balance for May worsened from -$86.97 billion to -$96.59 billion. On the positive side, durable goods orders for May surged by 16.4%, well above the expected 8.6% gain, but the increase was largely skewed toward transportation.

Undoubtedly, the Federal Reserve will consider this data when adjusting monetary policy. As a result, investors have increased the probability of a rate cut at the July meeting to 21% and at the September meeting from 65.6% to 70.2% in a single day. The euro rose by 41 pips, but the S&P 500 also gained 0.80%, reflecting a sustained appetite for risk. This morning, S&P 500 futures hit a new all-time high. Is it time for markets to consider a reversal?

This image is no longer relevant

On the weekly chart, the euro is approaching the upper boundary of the price channel (1.1820). The Marlin oscillator now shows that hitting this target will not break the developing bearish divergence. Next week will be crucial in this regard.

This image is no longer relevant

On the daily chart, the price is trying to hold above the 1.1692 level, but the Marlin oscillator is slightly turning downward, which does not support this movement. The main support is the MACD line at 1.1590. A firm move below this line would signal a medium-term downward reversal.

This image is no longer relevant

On the four-hour chart, support from the MACD line coincides with the support from the higher timeframe (1.1590), which keeps the bulls' positions relatively firm. The Marlin oscillator is ready to turn upward, and the price is rebounding from the 1.1692 level.

However, today is Friday, which may lead to weekly profit-taking, so we do not expect the day to close with a white (bullish) candle.

Laurie Bailey,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

AUD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

On Tuesday, the AUD/JPY pair showed confident growth, reaching a nearly four-month high following the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) unexpected decision to keep interest rates unchanged. At the same

Irina Yanina 12:41 2025-07-08 UTC+2

Forecast for EUR/USD on July 8, 2025

On Monday, the EUR/USD pair continued a mild downward movement. After reaching the 127.2% retracement level at 1.1712, the pair neither rebounded nor consolidated. Therefore, the 1.1712 level should

Samir Klishi 12:24 2025-07-08 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on July 8, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair traded sideways on Monday, and traders began to ignore the 1.3611–1.3633 level. At the moment, we cannot say whether the price is rebounding

Samir Klishi 12:18 2025-07-08 UTC+2

Will Divergence in RSI bring weakness to Crude Oil? Tuesday, July 8, 2025.

Crude Oil – Tuesday, July 8, 2025 The surge in Crude Oil production from OPEC raises concerns about excessive supply flooding the world market and the possibility of weakening global

Arief Makmur 08:59 2025-07-08 UTC+2

Could the weakening that occurred in Fiber be temporary? Tuesday, July 8, 2025.

EUR/USD – Tuesday, July 8, 2025 Data from the Eurozone that is starting to improve and signals of Dovish policy from The Fed provide an opportunity for EUR/USD to strengthen

Arief Makmur 08:59 2025-07-08 UTC+2

EUR/USD Forecast for July 8, 2025

On Monday, the euro declined by 71 pips, testing the support at 1.1692. As anticipated, the price did not attempt to break through the MACD line immediately but chose instead

Laurie Bailey 06:14 2025-07-08 UTC+2

GBP/USD Forecast for July 8, 2025

GBP/USDAmid yesterday's 0.56% rise in the U.S. dollar index, the British pound declined by 0.20% (-51 points). The price moved further away from the 1.3635 level, while the Marlin oscillator

Laurie Bailey 05:56 2025-07-08 UTC+2

AUD/USD Forecast for July 8, 2025

AUD/USDWith support from the U.S. dollar (USDX +0.56%), the Australian currency became the day's top decliner (-0.69%, -61 points), as markets await today's expected Reserve Bank of Australia rate

Laurie Bailey 05:50 2025-07-08 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Analysis, Forecast, and Current Market Situation

Gold is maintaining a bearish intraday tone today.Oscillators on the daily chart are just beginning to show negative momentum, indicating the potential for further declines in the metal's price

Irina Yanina 12:50 2025-07-07 UTC+2

Forecast for EUR/USD on July 7, 2025

On Friday, the EUR/USD pair traded very weakly, with trader activity extremely low due to the U.S. Independence Day. As a result, no trading signals, important breakouts, or other chart

Samir Klishi 11:48 2025-07-07 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.