On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair continued its decline toward the 1.1645 level, while the 127.2% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.1712 was largely ignored by traders. A rebound from 1.1645 would favor the euro and could lead to a moderate rise toward 1.1712. A firm close below 1.1645 would increase the likelihood of a further decline toward the next Fibonacci level at 100.0% – 1.1574.

The wave pattern on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The most recent upward wave broke above the previous peak, and the current downward wave has not approached the previous low. This suggests that the trend remains bullish. The lack of progress in U.S. trade negotiations, the low probability of agreements with most countries, and the imposition of new tariffs continue to paint a bleak picture for the bears.

This week's news cycle has been entirely focused on new tariffs announced or planned by Donald Trump. After a list of more than 20 countries was published earlier in the week, Trump announced on Friday a new 35% tariff on all imports from Canada, effective August 1. Additionally, previously announced tariffs on copper imports will mostly affect Canada, as it is the primary exporter of copper to the U.S. Naturally, these new measures are aimed at pressuring Ottawa into making concessions at the negotiating table. Ironically, Trump does not actually want to raise tariffs. After all, the cost will fall on American consumers—something voters are unlikely to support amid the current U.S. situation. As a result, Republicans risk losing their majority in both chambers of Congress in the next elections. And if Elon Musk's party emerges as a real political force by then, votes may have to be split three ways—leaving Republicans far from a majority for the foreseeable future.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has returned to the 1.1680 level. A rebound from this level would favor the euro and a renewed upward movement toward the 161.8% Fibonacci level at 1.1851. A firm close below this level would allow for a decline toward the lower boundary of the ascending trend channel. No emerging divergences are currently visible on any indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

Over the last reporting week, professional traders opened 1,188 long positions and 4,786 short contracts. Sentiment among the Non-commercial group remains bullish and has continued to strengthen, largely due to Donald Trump. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 225,000, while short positions total 117,000—a gap that has steadily widened (with few exceptions). In short, demand for the euro is strong, while the dollar continues to lack support. The situation remains unchanged.

For 22 consecutive weeks, large players have been reducing their short positions and increasing their long positions. Although the difference in monetary policy between the ECB and the Fed is substantial, Trump's policies are currently the dominant factor for traders, as they pose risks of recession and other long-term structural problems for the U.S. economy.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the EU:

July 11 – No significant entries on the economic calendar. As a result, the news background is unlikely to influence market sentiment on Friday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trader Recommendations:

I would not consider selling the pair today, as the 1.1712 level does not appear particularly strong. Buying opportunities may arise from a rebound at the 1.1680 level on the 4-hour chart, targeting 1.1802, as the bulls currently appear much stronger than the bears.

Fibonacci level grids are based on 1.1574–1.1066 on the hourly chart and 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.