Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Euro

The price test at 1.1687 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved well above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro and remained out of the market.

Following the release of favorable ZEW economic sentiment data in the eurozone and a sharp increase in industrial production, the euro posted a modest gain but failed to stage a significant rally. It seems the market is waiting for more important data, as well as upcoming central bank meetings.

This afternoon, critically important U.S. inflation data for June will be released — both the overall Consumer Price Index and the core reading excluding volatile categories. These figures directly affect Federal Reserve policy decisions and could trigger sharp currency movements. Any deviation between the actual and forecast values is expected to cause significant volatility in the forex market, especially for the EUR/USD pair. If CPI comes in higher than expected, the Fed may be forced to act more aggressively. This would strengthen the dollar and weaken the euro. Conversely, weaker data may soften the Fed's stance and weigh on the dollar. It's also important not to overlook the geopolitical context, which significantly influences investor sentiment.

As for the intraday strategy, I'll focus primarily on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro upon a price move to around 1.1690 (green line on the chart), targeting growth to 1.1749. At 1.1749, I will exit the market and open a short position in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move from the entry point. A strong euro rally today can only be expected if U.S. inflation shows a sharp decline.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1671 price, at a time when the MACD is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1690 and 1.1749 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.1671 level (red line on the chart), targeting 1.1620, where I will exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 point move from the entry point). Pressure on the pair will return today if price pressures in the U.S. rise.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to move downward.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1690 price, when the MACD is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A drop toward the opposite levels of 1.1671 and 1.1620 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – Entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – Projected price for setting Take Profit or manually locking in profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – Entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – Projected price for setting Take Profit or manually locking in profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – When entering the market, it's essential to consider overbought and oversold zones

Important:Beginner Forex traders must exercise great caution when entering the market. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental data to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Trading without stop-losses can lead to rapid depletion of your deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan — such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.