On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Thursday returned to the support zone of 1.3357–1.3371 and bounced off it again. This resulted in a reversal in favor of the British currency and initiated a new upward movement toward the 76.4% retracement level at 1.3470. A second rebound from this level would once again favor the U.S. dollar and a renewed decline toward the 1.3357–1.3371 level. A consolidation above 1.3470 would increase the probability of continued growth toward the 1.3530 and 1.3579 levels.

The wave pattern has now shifted in favor of the bears. Several downward waves have formed, each breaking below the low of the previous one. Currently, the decline is not over. A consolidation above the 1.3470 level would mean a break above the latest wave's peak, which could signal a possible trend reversal back to bullish.

Yesterday's reports in the UK on unemployment and jobless claims created new challenges for the pound. However, the market held above the support zone of 1.3357–1.3371, slightly boosting bullish sentiment and offering hope for a counterattack. It's worth noting that the EUR/USD pair also found support around the 1.1574 level. Thus, both the euro and the pound have encountered strong support zones from which a new bullish trend may emerge.

In my view, the fundamental background fully supports a renewed decline in the U.S. dollar. All recent news from the U.S. has focused on new tariffs and pressure on Jerome Powell. Markets may again begin to question the rationale for buying the dollar. Chart analysis allows for growth in both the euro and the pound, and the bears are finding fewer reasons for optimism. For a while, they were able to move on momentum due to the bulls' passivity, but they won't be able to ignore the fundamental backdrop indefinitely.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar and continued its decline. This week, it consolidated below the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3435 and below the ascending trend channel. I remain cautious about calling a full trend reversal to bearish, as there has been very little positive news from the U.S. I consider a corrective pullback likely and justified, but not a full bearish trend. From a chart perspective, the decline may continue toward the next Fibonacci retracement level at 76.4% – 1.3118, but there is already strong support visible on the hourly chart.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment among "Non-commercial" traders has become slightly less bullish over the past reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 7,302, while the number of short positions rose by 10,298. However, bears have long since lost their advantage in the market and have no real chance of success. The gap between long and short positions stands at 32,000 in favor of the bulls: 107,000 versus 75,000.

In my opinion, the pound still has room to fall, but events in 2025 have turned the market around in the long term. Over the past four months, the number of long contracts has grown from 65,000 to 107,000, while short positions have decreased from 76,000 to 75,000. Under Donald Trump, confidence in the dollar has weakened, and the COT reports show that traders are not eager to buy the greenback. Therefore, regardless of the general information backdrop, the dollar continues to decline due to developments surrounding Trump.

Economic calendar for the U.S. and the UK:

• U.S. – Building Permits (12:30 UTC)
• U.S. – Housing Starts (12:30 UTC)
• U.S. – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (14:00 UTC)

The economic calendar for Friday includes three events. The fundamental backdrop may influence trader sentiment in the second half of the day, but its impact is unlikely to be strong.

Forecast for GBP/USD and trader recommendations:

I do not recommend opening new short positions today, as the dollar has likely already fulfilled its short-term downward potential. Long positions could have been opened on a rebound from the 1.3357–1.3371 zone, targeting 1.3425 and 1.3470. A similar signal earlier this week yielded a good profit.

Fibonacci retracement grids were built from 1.3371–1.3787 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.