Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are relatively few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Friday, but all of them are quite important. In Germany, the IFO Business Climate Index will be released — the least significant report of the day. In the UK, retail sales data will be published, which is of far greater interest. Yesterday, the British pound partly fell due to weak business activity indices; a similar scenario may repeat today. In the US, an important report on durable goods orders is expected. This category of goods is typically high in value, making it a reliable indicator of significant changes in consumer sentiment and confidence.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There is absolutely nothing noteworthy among Friday's fundamental events. As mentioned before, the monetary policy of any central bank is currently, first of all, not particularly relevant (since only the dollar is consistently declining), and second, completely transparent and clear to traders. No sharp shifts in sentiment or policy changes are expected from central banks, which is why statements from central bank officials are no longer of significant interest.

The trade war remains the top concern for the market, with no signs of resolution in sight. This topic could remain the key driver for the dollar for quite some time. So don't be surprised that we repeat the same thing daily. The situation remains complicated, as Donald Trump has managed to conclude only three trade deals over more than four months of negotiations — one of which is highly questionable. Three deals out of a possible 75. Over the past two weeks, the US President has once again decided to raise tariffs on countries reluctant to reach agreements with Washington, while also increasing import duties on copper, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors. The market has not yet fully priced in all the new tariffs, as it has been occupied with technical corrections.

Conclusions:

On the last trading day of the week, both currency pairs are likely to resume upward movement. The technical corrections are over, so we expect the uptrend to continue over the coming weeks and months.

For the euro, the 1.1740–1.1745 area is key for initiating trades.

For the British pound, the 1.3518–1.3532 zone is critical.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.