For the pound, the new week promises to be very uneventful. No important data is expected from the United Kingdom, so all attention will shift to the dollar and the United States. It may seem odd to focus on American events in a pound-related review, but in 2025, that's the only framework that actually works. Several interesting reports were released in the UK this past week, but none of them drew significant attention. It's evident that the GBP/USD pair moved under the influence of entirely different factors than British data.

What can be said specifically about the pound? Everything depends on the U.S. dollar. Demand for the U.S. currency is either rising or falling (more often falling), and that determines the direction of GBP/USD. In my view, the current wave structure remains intact, which means a further decline in the British currency is still possible, as the presumed wave 4 may take the form of a three-wave correction. Undoubtedly, the American news background will be so strong next week that it could easily reverse the bearish sentiment that formed last week. Therefore, even now, when the price is close to the previous low, we cannot be sure that the decline will continue.

The first week of each month tends to be quite active due to a flood of important reports from the U.S. This time, they will be "spiced up" by a Federal Reserve meeting and the implementation of new tariffs by Donald Trump. Since making weekly forecasts is nearly meaningless under such conditions, I believe it is best to rely on the wave structure for now.

Given that we've recently been seeing relatively clear wave formations, wave 4 is more likely to take a three-wave form rather than a single-wave one. Therefore, a decline should be expected, but every piece of news and every report should be tracked carefully.

Wave Pattern for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward trend segment. The wave structure remains entirely dependent on the news background, especially on decisions made by Trump and U.S. foreign policy, where no positive changes are currently evident. The targets of the trend segment could reach as far as the 1.25 area. Therefore, I continue to consider long positions with targets near 1.1875 (corresponding to a 161.8% Fibonacci level) and higher. The failed attempt to break through 1.1572 (which corresponds to 100.0% Fibonacci) indicates the market's readiness for new buying activity. The assumed wave 4 may take a three-wave corrective form.

Wave Pattern for GBP/USD:

The wave structure for GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with an upward, impulsive segment of the trend. Under Trump, the markets may still experience many shocks and reversals, which could significantly impact the wave structure. However, for now, the primary scenario remains intact. The targets of the upward trend segment are now located around the 1.4017 level, which corresponds to 261.8% Fibonacci from the assumed global wave 2. Currently, a corrective wave set is forming within wave 4. Classically, it should consist of three waves, but the market may well limit it to just one.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often subject to changes.
2. If there is no confidence in the market situation, it's better to stay out.
3. There is never 100% certainty about the market direction. Don't forget to use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.