The Federal Reserve's policy meeting today could provide a boost to the cryptocurrency market. Even the slightest hint from the committee about a potential interest rate cut in September would be enough. Although the market is already pricing in a 60% chance of such a move, confirmation of these expectations from Fed Chair Jerome Powell could trigger a significant rally in risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Such a signal would be seen by the market as a sign of easing economic pressure, which would, in turn, increase appetite for riskier assets — cryptocurrencies among them. Investors, weary of uncertainty and inflation, are actively seeking alternative ways to preserve and grow their capital. Despite their volatility, cryptocurrencies are increasingly viewed as a potential hedge against inflation and the devaluation of traditional currencies, especially in a loose monetary policy environment.

Of course, a hint alone is not enough to guarantee a full-scale crypto market rally. Other factors must also be considered, such as regulation, technological innovation, and investor sentiment. However, a shift toward monetary easing by the Federal Reserve could serve as a catalyst to push the market higher and attract new participants.

On the other hand, keeping rates at their current high levels would reduce the appeal of risk assets and renew the attractiveness of the US dollar. Nevertheless, in the long term, the crypto market retains its growth potential. Advances in technology, a growing user base, and increasing adoption by institutional investors are all creating favorable conditions for continued market development. The Fed's decision may be just one of many factors influencing cryptocurrency price dynamics, but its significance should not be underestimated.

Trading recommendations

Bitcoin From a technical perspective, buyers are currently aiming for a return to the $118,800 level, which opens the way to $120,400. From there, the path to $122,000 is short. The most distant target is the high around $123,900; a breakout above this level would confirm a strengthening bull market. In case of a decline, buyers are expected around the $117,500 level. A drop back below this area could quickly drag BTC down toward $115,900. The furthest downside target is around $114,000.

Ethereum A clear consolidation above the $3,828 level opens the path toward $3,915. The ultimate upside target is the high near $4,002 — a breakout above which would indicate a renewed interest from buyers. If ETH declines, buyers are expected around $3,753. A drop below this area could quickly send ETH down to around $3,669. The furthest downside target is $3,589.

What's on the chart

• Red lines represent support and resistance levels, where price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.