The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave its current monetary policy settings unchanged at today's meeting. As a result, there is little intrigue surrounding the decision. No updates to key economic forecasts or the Fed's dot plot are scheduled for the July meeting, meaning Jerome Powell will be the only potential source of new information.

However, expectations for Powell's comments are also modest. As noted in previous analyses, inflation has only just begun to react to Donald Trump's tariffs. Therefore, the first meaningful conclusions about the impact of the new U.S. trade policy on inflation are unlikely to emerge before autumn. The next Fed meeting is scheduled for September 17, and two inflation reports will be released before then. Consequently, if the FOMC does decide to resume a rate-cutting cycle, it will likely not happen before September.

This is well understood by market participants. The real question is whether two rounds of easing should still be expected before year-end. After today's meeting, the Fed has only three more scheduled meetings in 2025. For the market's current projections to be correct, rate cuts would need to occur at two of those. But what are the odds?

In my view, the probability of less than 50 basis points of easing is higher than the probability of 50 or more. The U.S. Consumer Price Index has been rising in recent months, and Donald Trump has managed to raise tariffs even while signing trade agreements. I therefore believe that existing and future trade deals will not prevent the CPI from climbing further. It's also important to note that inflation is not a priority for Donald Trump. As a result, the U.S. president is unlikely to take any steps to contain a renewed surge in inflation. That responsibility will once again fall to the Federal Reserve—while it still has the capacity to act. Next year, that may change if Jerome Powell is replaced.

Based on this outlook, I believe we will see no more than one round of easing before the end of the year, which is clearly positive for the U.S. dollar.

EUR/USD Wave Structure

Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, the instrument continues to form an upward segment of the trend. The wave structure remains entirely dependent on news related to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. The trend's targets could extend up to the 1.25 level. I therefore continue to consider buying opportunities with targets near 1.1875, which corresponds to the 161.8% Fibonacci level, and higher. In the coming days, wave 4 may be completed, so it is advisable to look for new buying opportunities this week and closely monitor the news background.

GBP/USD Wave Structure

The wave structure of GBP/USD remains unchanged. The market is currently in an upward impulse phase. Under Donald Trump, markets may face many more shocks and reversals that could significantly impact the wave pattern. For now, however, the current scenario remains intact. The target for the bullish segment of the trend is near 1.4017. At present, a corrective wave sequence is unfolding as part of wave 4. Classic wave theory suggests that this sequence should consist of three waves, and we are currently observing the development of wave C.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and easy to interpret. Complex patterns are difficult to trade and often prone to change.
2. If there is no confidence in the market situation, it is better to stay out.
3. There can never be absolute certainty in market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.