The US market is holding its ground but no longer advancing. It has reached its projected peak yet has not found fresh energy for the next leg up. The week is unfolding in a mode of "quiet reconnaissance": investors are monitoring news from China, corporate earnings, and inflation.
If Wednesday's CPI reading comes in line with expectations, the index may attempt to climb above 6,000, though without much cushion. Any misstep, particularly in the inflation data, could trigger profit-taking.
At moments like this, it is important to remember: a bull market does not end at the top; it ends when hope gives way to fear. That point has not yet arrived, but confidence is clearly fading.
On Tuesday, US equities remain elevated, though the bullish momentum is becoming erratic. Futures on the major US indices showed little movement: US-China negotiations in London, which began the previous day, have yet to yield major headlines. Talks center on rare earth metal supplies and potential easing of export restrictions. It is an important topic, especially for the tech sector, but one still lacking specifics.
On Monday, the S&P 500 edged up just 0.09%, the Nasdaq added 0.31%, while the Dow remained flat. The market is in a wait-and-see mode, and not without reason.
Key events and corporate stories
The main corporate headline came from Qualcomm, which rose 4.1% following the announcement of its $2.4 billion acquisition of Alphawave. The deal fits logically into Qualcomm's strategy of strengthening its position in data centers and high-speed interfaces. Against this backdrop, the market approved.
Meanwhile, Apple disappointed. Its shares fell 1.2% after the WWDC failed to deliver major news on artificial intelligence. For investors, this signaled that simple iOS updates are no longer enough and technological breakthroughs are expected.
Attention is also shifting toward macroeconomics. On Tuesday, NFIB small business sentiment data will be released, but the week's key focus remains inflation. CPI on Wednesday, PPI on Thursday, and the University of Michigan report on Friday are the three triggers that could sharply reshape market sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve's June 17–18 meeting.
JPMorgan revises forecast: 6,000 target reached, further gains limited
Against a backdrop of moderate optimism, JPMorgan has revised its year-end forecast for the S&P 500, now targeting 6,000 instead of the previous 5,200.
It is worth noting that this is not a forecast of explosive growth, but rather an acknowledgment of current realities. The market is already at these heights.
The bank's strategists point to strong corporate earnings, the resilience of the US economy, and sustained interest in AI as key supportive factors. However, they also emphasize that from current levels, further upside is extremely limited.
Essentially, JPMorgan suggests the market can rise further, but only on inertia and with caution, particularly if political uncertainty or inflation data again disrupt the outlook.
Technical picture
The S&P 500 has consolidated at JPMorgan's target level, but without any upward cushion. The next resistance lies near 6,130. Without a strong catalyst (such as a moderate CPI), a breakout appears unlikely.
Support is located at 5,920–5,900. Negative data could trigger a pullback to this range and a test of 5,850.
The Nasdaq 100 sits in a potential consolidation zone ahead of any breakout attempt above 22,000. The RSI is already approaching overheated levels, suggesting a correction or at least a pause is needed. Support stands at 21,400, with 21,000 below that. A breakout above 22,000 would open the path to 22,500, but an external catalyst is required.
Qualcomm remains attractive for medium-term strategy
At its current price of $156, Qualcomm's stock is trading near local resistance yet maintains growth potential over the medium term. Analysts at leading investment houses, including JPMorgan and TipRanks, on average expect a move toward $170–177 over the next 6–12 months.
Some estimates reach as high as $190 or even $215, contingent on strong quarterly results and continued interest in the data center and AI infrastructure segments where Qualcomm is actively investing.
The fundamental picture remains fairly solid. The recent $2.4 billion acquisition of Alphawave is seen by the market as a step toward strengthening Qualcomm's position in high-speed chips and interfaces, especially in the data center space.
Investors responded positively to the news. Thus, shares jumped more than 4%, confirming demand for the company's strategic initiatives. At the same time, the stock appears relatively undervalued by multiples, including P/E, especially compared to other major players in the sector.
Technically, Qualcomm is consolidating within a $150–160 range. A breakout above the upper boundary could open the way to $170 and beyond, where consensus targets are located.
The RSI points to a neutral zone—neither overbought nor oversold—reflecting the current balance between buyers and sellers. Support lies in the $150–152 area. A return to these levels could present an attractive entry point with 10–20% upside potential.
Risks include overall volatility in the semiconductor sector, potential corrections in tech indices, and geopolitical factors. Additionally, investors are awaiting the next quarterly report: if expectations are exceeded, it could serve as a fresh catalyst for growth.
