Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The price test at 1.1483 aligned with the MACD indicator's upward movement from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose toward the target level of 1.1537.

Today, in the first half of the day, the euro may continue to rise, but this will require the release of strong data on the German business climate indicator. The euro will receive an additional boost if strong macroeconomic figures are published from Germany. Investors will interpret this as a sign of the German economy's resilience, the eurozone's engine. This may strengthen confidence in the European Central Bank's ability to control inflation and support economic growth. However, if the data falls short of expectations or Christine Lagarde expresses concerns about the economic outlook, the euro could come under pressure. A much stronger bullish impulse could also come from developments in the Middle East, where the intensity of the military conflict gradually decreases. An announcement of a ceasefire would be good news.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches around 1.1627 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 1.1684. I plan to exit the market at 1.1684 and sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 pip move from the entry level. A bullish euro move today is expected following good economic data.

Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1597 price level at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.1627 and 1.1684 can be expected.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1597 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1554, where I intend to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip move in the opposite direction from this level). Pressure on the pair is likely to return in the case of weak data.

Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1627 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A drop toward the opposite levels of 1.1597 and 1.1554 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.