empty
14.07.2025 10:23 PM
GBP/USD Analysis – July 14th. The Dollar Finds a New Reason to Rejoice

This image is no longer relevant

The wave pattern for the GBP/USD pair continues to indicate the formation of a bullish impulse wave structure. The wave picture is nearly identical to that of EUR/USD, as the U.S. dollar remains the central player in the market. Demand for the dollar is declining across the board, leading to similar dynamics across various instruments. Wave 2 of the bullish trend segment took the form of a single wave. The assumed Wave 3 has taken a clear and completed shape, so I expect the formation of a corrective structure next.

It's important to remember that the current state of the currency market is heavily influenced by Donald Trump's policies—not just trade-related ones. The U.S. occasionally reports decent economic data, but the market remains burdened by ongoing uncertainty, contradictory decisions and statements from Trump, and the White House's hostile, protectionist stance on foreign policy. As a result, the dollar has to "work hard" to convert even good news into increased market demand.

The GBP/USD rate fell by 160 basis points last week and lost about another 20 points on Monday. In my view, this move cannot be called fundamentally justified, as there were virtually no major economic releases this week. The headlines were once again dominated by Donald Trump, who criticized Jerome Powell, demanded that the Fed cut rates by at least 3%, raised trade tariffs for more than two dozen countries, and imposed new duties on imports of copper and pharmaceuticals. All of these developments could have potentially lowered demand for the U.S. dollar. However, as I previously warned, the wave pattern has finally shifted in favor of the dollar and GBP/USD sellers.

Today it was reported that the U.S. budget showed a surplus for the first time since 2017. This means that the U.S. took in more revenue than it spent. According to the U.S. Department of the Treasury, this surplus was made possible thanks to Trump's tariffs. However, I would note that the trade balance itself has not turned surplus due to these tariffs. The most recent official report from the U.S. Census Bureau on imports, exports, and the trade balance, published on July 3, covered May. The next report, covering June—where the surplus is supposedly seen—will be released on August 5. The forecast for that report is a deficit of 51 billion dollars.

It should also be noted that imports to the U.S. in April and May fell sharply—by around 70 billion dollars compared to March (which stood at 420 billion). Therefore, achieving a trade surplus was easier than ever, simply due to the drop in import volumes. Based on this, even if the world sees the first U.S. trade surplus in 8 years in June, it will be a one-off occurrence, even with high import tariffs in place.

This image is no longer relevant

General Conclusions

The wave pattern for GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are still in the midst of a bullish impulse trend segment. Under Donald Trump's presidency, the markets may face numerous shocks and reversals, which could significantly affect the wave structure, but for now, the main working scenario remains intact. The targets for the bullish trend segment are now located around the 1.4017 level, which corresponds to 261.8% of the Fibonacci extension from the assumed global Wave 2. A corrective wave sequence has now begun, and traditionally, it should consist of three waves.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex patterns are harder to trade and often change.
  2. If you're uncertain about the market situation, it's better to stay out.
  3. Absolute certainty in price direction is impossible. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
Chin Zhao,
انسٹافاریکس کا تجزیاتی ماہر
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Alexander Dneprovskiy
Start trade
انسٹافاریکس کے ساتھ کرپٹو کرنسی کی معاملاتی تبدیلیوں سے کمائیں۔
میٹا ٹریڈر 4 ڈاؤن لوڈ کریں اور اپنی پہلی ٹریڈ کھولیں۔
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    مقابلہ میں شامل ہوں

تجویز کردہ مضامین

یورو / یو ایس ڈی کا تجزیہ برائے 12 اگست 2025

یورو / یو ایس ڈی کے 4 گھنٹے کے چارٹ پر لہر کا ڈھانچہ کئی مہینوں سے بدستور برقرار ہے، جو بہت حوصلہ افزا ہے۔ یہاں تک کہ جب اصلاحی

Chin Zhao 20:50 2025-08-12 UTC+2

جی بی پی / یو ایس ڈی کا تجزیہ برائے 12 اگست 2025

جی بی پی / یو ایس ڈی کے لیے، لہر کا ڈھانچہ بلش امپلس ویو پیٹرن کی تشکیل کی نشاندہی کرتا رہتا ہے۔ لہر کی تصویر تقریباً یورو

Chin Zhao 20:37 2025-08-12 UTC+2

یورو / یو ایس ڈی تجزیہ برائے 31 جولائی 2025

یورو / یو ایس ڈی کے لیے 4 گھنٹے کے چارٹ پر لہر کا نمونہ کئی مہینوں سے بدستور برقرار ہے۔ رجحان کا اوپر کی طرف حصہ بننا جاری ہے،

Chin Zhao 21:10 2025-07-31 UTC+2

جی بی پی / یو ایس ڈی کا تجزیہ برائے 31 جولائی 2025

جی بی پی / یو ایس ڈی کے لیے لہر کا نمونہ تیزی کے تسلسل کی لہر کے ڈھانچے کی ترقی کی نشاندہی کرتا ہے۔ لہر کی ترتیب یورو

Chin Zhao 21:05 2025-07-31 UTC+2

جولائی 29 کو یورو / یو ایس ڈی: بلز مارکیٹ کو 1.189 کی سطح کی طرف دھکیل سکتے ہیں

طویل مدت میں، یورو / یو ایس ڈی مارکیٹ ایک بڑی تیزی کی اصلاح (بی) تشکیل دے رہی ہے، جو معیاری اے بی سی زگ زیگ کی شکل اختیار

Roman Onegin 19:06 2025-07-29 UTC+2

یورو / یو ایس ڈی کا تجزیہ برائے 17 جولائی 2025

یورو / یو ایس ڈی کے لیے 4 گھنٹے کے چارٹ پر لہر کا پیٹرن مسلسل کئی مہینوں سے غیر تبدیل شدہ ہے۔ اوپر کی طرف رجحان والے

Chin Zhao 21:57 2025-07-16 UTC+2

جولائی 16 2025 کو جی بی پی / یو ایس ڈی تجزیہ

جی بی پی / یو ایس ڈی کے لیے لہر کا پیٹرن بلش امپلس ویو پیٹرن کی تشکیل کی نشاندہی کرتا ہے۔ لہر کی ترتیب تقریباً یورو

Chin Zhao 21:53 2025-07-16 UTC+2

یورو / یو ایس ڈی کا تجزیہ برائے 30 جون 2025

یورو / یو ایس ڈی کے لیے 4 گھنٹے کے چارٹ پر لہر کا پیٹرن اوپر کی طرف رجحان والے حصے کی تشکیل کی نشاندہی کرتا ہے۔ 28 فروری تک،

Chin Zhao 20:17 2025-06-30 UTC+2

جی بی پی / یو ایس ڈی : تجزیہ اور پیشن گوئی

جی بی پی / یو ایس ڈی کے لیے لہر کا پیٹرن اوپر کی طرف آنے والی لہر کے پیٹرن کی تشکیل کی تجویز کرتا ہے۔ لہر کی تصویر تقریباً

Chin Zhao 20:14 2025-06-30 UTC+2

یورو / یو ایس ڈی کا تجزیہ برائے 23 جون 2025

یہ کہ 4 گھنٹے کے یورو / یو ایس ڈی چارٹ کا لہر پیٹرن اوپر کی طرف رجحان والے حصے کی ترقی کی نشاندہی کرتا ہے۔ یہ تبدیلی

Chin Zhao 19:35 2025-06-23 UTC+2
ابھی فوری بات نہیں کرسکتے ؟
اپنا سوال پوچھیں بذریعہ چیٹ.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.