empty
08.05.2025 12:47 AM
Commodity Currencies Decline Ahead of FOMC Meeting: NZD/USD Overview

The labor market report from New Zealand, published on Wednesday, is the last major release before the RBNZ meeting at the end of May. Notably, instead of clarifying the outlook, it only added more uncertainty, as the final figures diverged significantly from forecasts.

Specifically, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.1%, while a rise to 5.3% was expected due to labor supply growth outpacing job creation in recent months. The employment cost index also showed weaker wage growth than the previous quarter—2.5% vs. 2.9%, with a forecast of 2.7%. This indicator indirectly reflects future inflation expectations, and its slowdown contradicts the rise in inflation seen in Q1.

This image is no longer relevant

Overall, the report appears somewhat inconsistent, but is unlikely to alter the RBNZ's rate outlook, as economic prospects amid a possible escalation in the tariff war are expected to take center stage. Forecasting models that once predicted a steady recovery after Q4 already show noticeable deviations toward greater-than-expected downside risks. Following the previous RBNZ meeting, several regional banks lowered their estimates for the terminal rate. For example, ANZ revised its terminal rate projection from 3.0% to 2.5%. When the RBNZ began its easing cycle in August last year, it consistently lowered the rate by 25 basis points at each meeting, skipping only the December one. After the recent April cut, markets expected a pause in May. However, if the RBNZ sees new threats to the economy, it may lower the rate again, from the current 3.5% to 3.25%. This step has not yet been fully priced in, and could exert pressure on the New Zealand dollar.

As a result, the risk of increased downward pressure on NZD/USD is growing, and the current bullish impulse appears fragile.

The net short position on NZD continues to shrink, with a weekly change of +$329 million, bringing the total net short position down to –$1.27 billion. Positioning is shifting from bearish to neutral, while the fair value remains confidently above the long-term average, suggesting potential for further upside.

This image is no longer relevant

The second attempt to break through the 0.6030 resistance also failed, but the kiwi hasn't lost its bullish momentum. A breakout above this resistance is still expected in the near term. There are no clear bearish reversal signals yet, and the key factor that could slow the rally may appear following the conclusion of the FOMC meeting. If Jerome Powell doesn't surprise markets with hawkish remarks at the press conference, uncertainty could ease, and the U.S. dollar's underlying weakness may reassert itself. The long-term target remains 0.6362, although it's too early to define a timeline for reaching that level.

Kuvat Raharjo,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

EUR/JPY. Análise e previsão

O par EUR/JPY está recuperando o ímpeto positivo durante o pregão de hoje, revertendo sua recente queda. O euro continua se beneficiando do sentimento predominante de venda do dólar americano

Irina Yanina 14:13 2025-06-27 UTC+2

O iene está de volta ao jogo

O iene fracassou no teste como moeda porto-seguro. O conflito entre Israel e Irã provocou uma correção no USD/JPY, alinhando-se a uma tendência de baixa. Durante boa parte

Marek Petkovich 21:09 2025-06-26 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Análise, previsão e situação atual do mercado

A demanda intradiária pelo iene japonês continua firme, acompanhada por uma fraqueza generalizada do dólar americano, o que contribui para a queda do par USD/JPY. As expectativas crescentes

Irina Yanina 20:05 2025-06-26 UTC+2

O dólar enfrenta resistência e incertezas

Os mercados estavam preparados para um cessar-fogo no Oriente Médio — mas estarão prontos para o retorno das guerras comerciais? Os investidores passaram a acreditar na manutenção de uma tarifa

Marek Petkovich 18:11 2025-06-26 UTC+2

Em que prestar atenção no dia 26 de junho? Uma análise dos eventos fundamentais para iniciantes

Há poucos relatórios macroeconômicos agendados para esta quinta-feira, e o mercado tem mostrado, ao longo da semana, uma clara intenção de manter a tendência de alta que já dura cinco

Paolo Greco 17:58 2025-06-26 UTC+2

O euro recupera a iniciativa

O euro tenta retomar seu movimento de alta, embora faltem fundamentos econômicos sólidos para sustentar esse cenário. A inflação em maio subiu em linha com as expectativas do Banco Central

Kuvat Raharjo 17:26 2025-06-26 UTC+2

Os investidores continuam atentos à fraqueza crônica do dólar, com possibilidade de queda adicional no #USDX e no USD/JPY

Os mercados continuam sendo dominados pelo tema das negociações entre Irã e Israel, iniciadas anteriormente pelos Estados Unidos. A conclusão — ou não — de acordos concretos terá um impacto

Pati Gani 17:18 2025-06-26 UTC+2

Trump critica novamente o Fed por ser muito lento

Na quarta-feira, o dólar norte-americano caiu acentuadamente em relação às principais moedas após o presidente Donald Trump declarar que tem três ou quatro nomes em mente para substituir o presidente

Jakub Novak 17:07 2025-06-26 UTC+2

O mercado parece ter encontrado a cura para todos os males

Parece que os céus estão alinhados com os desejos de Donald Trump. Os avanços do presidente dos Estados Unidos no Oriente Médio levaram a uma nova percepção sobre as políticas

Marek Petkovich 14:57 2025-06-26 UTC+2

USD/CHF. Análise e previsão

O par USD/CHF permaneceu sob pressão pelo quarto dia consecutivo, recuando para níveis não vistos desde 2011. O sentimento pessimista em relação ao dólar americano persiste, em meio a preocupações

Irina Yanina 14:39 2025-06-26 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.