06.05.202500:50 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Bitcoin Loses Its Foothold and Balances on a Knife's Edge: The $95,000 Trap

Bitcoin is under pressure once again. On Monday, the price of the world's largest cryptocurrency dropped below $95,000, and this is more than just another correction. It's a symptom of deeper structural tension in the current market. Over the past 24 hours, the coin has traded within a range of $93,806–$95,741, but short-term signals on the charts warn that something more significant is brewing beneath the surface.

Failed attempts to recover above $97,000 and weak buying activity suggest that the bulls are starting to tire. And while long-term charts still maintain a bullish tilt, short-term signals are growing increasingly alarming. It's not just about watching the numbers — it's about understanding what's behind them.

Bears Advance: The Technical Picture No Longer Favors Growth

On the hourly and 4-hour charts, the picture is bearish. The formation of lower highs and lows after the recent local high at $96,620 confirms that the market is losing ground. The $93,550 level has become a hotspot for intense selling, and a retest of this zone could lead to a breakdown.

A breach of $92,846 on the 4-hour chart would be critical. If the price consolidates below it, the road to $90,000 opens — possibly even lower. Psychologically and technically, that's another playing field, especially since it would drop below the 200-day moving average — a key level closely watched by institutional players.

The Daily Candle Doesn't Lie: The Correction Is in Full Swing

Looking at the daily timeframe, it becomes clear that the current market phase is no coincidence. After failing to break through $97,938, the price has printed several consecutive red candles — and this isn't just volatility. It's a decline accompanied by weakening buy volume.

What's worse, each green candle shows less volume than the previous one—a classic sign of long-term holders starting to offload their positions.

If the $93,000–$94,000 zone is breached, it won't just be a technical event — it could mark the official capitulation of the bulls.

Moving Averages: How to Read the Signals Correctly

Moving averages don't lie. Short-term EMAs and SMAs have turned downward. The 10-period EMA sits at $94,352, while the 10 SMA is at $94,984 — both pointing to downward pressure. However, longer-term trends remain bullish. The 200 EMA is $86,298, and the 200 SMA is $90,411. This is a crucial threshold: short-term traders may get burned, but long-term investors still hold their ground.

For seasoned traders, this means one thing: short-term strategies call for protection and hedging, while long-term strategies favor cautious accumulation during deep pullbacks.

Macro Factors Step In: The Fed, China, and Trump Are Back in Focus

The market is no longer operating in a vacuum. Anticipation of the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting and uncertainty in U.S.–China negotiations are adding pressure. While the consensus expects rates to remain unchanged, the key lies in the rhetoric. Any hints of tightening or rising geopolitical risks could quickly erode appetite for risk, including Bitcoin.

QCP Capital has noted this shift, emphasizing that markets have moved on from earnings season and are now entirely focused on monetary policy. If the Fed's tone is more hawkish than expected in the coming days, a second wave of declines could follow.

Institutions Still Playing — But Cautiously

Interest in spot ETFs remains high, with a net inflow of $1.81 billion over the past week. But even here, there is a dual message.

Glassnode points out that unrealized profit among long-term holders has reached 350% — a level that historically triggers profit-taking. That's a dangerous setup: large-scale selling from institutions could wipe out local support levels.

In other words, brace for a massive dump if Bitcoin approaches $99,900 again.

Outlook: What's Next?

Bullish scenario (less likely): Bitcoin holds the $93,000–$94,000 zone and reclaims $95,000 with solid volume. This could pave the way for a retest of $97,000 and then $98,000. The MACD remains positive, and moving averages still leave room for growth. However, this scenario would require a strong external catalyst — such as Fed support, ETF news, or geopolitical developments.

Bearish scenario (base case): A breakdown of $92,846 triggers a cascade decline targeting $91,000 and $89,000. Selling volume intensifies, and the market enters a phase of destructive correction. Profit-taking by institutional investors only accelerates the slide. In this case, Bitcoin could test the 200-day SMA at $90,411 — a key battleground for the asset's future.

Bitcoin is once again at a crossroads. And while headlines may promise a quick rebound, the reality is more complicated. The market is equally poised to swing in either direction — but the balance currently tips toward the bears.

Traders should abandon the habit of automatic dip buying — it's dangerous right now. This is the time for strategic thinking, working with shorter timeframes, and closely watching trading volumes.