empty
03.06.2025 03:57 AM
Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on June 3: Trump and ISM Hammer the Dollar

EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis

This image is no longer relevant

The EUR/USD currency pair showed fairly strong upward movement on Monday. Just as expected, the U.S. dollar started falling right from the market's opening on Monday night. What else could have been anticipated after Trump announced over the weekend that he intended to raise tariffs on steel and aluminum by another 25%? This was a new round of escalation in the trade war, and traders reacted accordingly. During the U.S. session, the most important report of the day was also published — the U.S. Manufacturing PMI. Its value in May was 48.5, compared to a forecast of 49.5. Thus, even if traders had intended to leave the dollar alone by the U.S. session, the macroeconomic backdrop didn't allow it.

Despite breaking through the ascending trendline, the upward trend resumed, as we had warned. With all due respect to the American currency, it is extremely difficult to expect strong dollar growth with Trump around. Even if a rally begins, it is uncertain when Trump will next appear on stage to announce any new tariffs, sanctions, or restrictions. Thus, the technical background is being overwhelmed by fundamentals.

On the 5-minute timeframe, a decent buy signal was formed early in the morning around the 1.1362 level. A few hours later, the price reached the 1.1426 level, where the upward movement halted. After that, the pair mostly traded sideways, but the overnight and morning movements were more than enough for a new dollar sell-off and to allow traders to profit. Technically, a rebound from 1.1426 could also have been traded, but this trade closed with a minimal loss.

COT Report

This image is no longer relevant

The latest COT report is dated May 27. The chart above shows that the net position of non-commercial traders was bullish for a long time; bears barely gained the upper hand at the end of 2024 but quickly lost it. Since Trump took office as U.S. president, the dollar has rapidly declined in value. We cannot be 100% certain that the dollar's decline will continue, but current global developments point precisely in that direction.

We still do not see any fundamental factors supporting the euro, but one decisive factor remains for the dollar's decline — Trump's trade wars. The global downtrend persists, but what value does a trend have now? The dollar might recover once Trump ends his trade wars — but will he end them? And when?

The red and blue lines have crossed again, so the market trend is again "bullish." Over the last reporting week, the number of long positions in the "Non-commercial" group decreased by 1,700, while shorts decreased by 6,700. Thus, the net position fell by 5,000 over the week. However, COT reports come with a one-week delay. At the moment, the market is actively buying EUR/USD again.

EUR/USD 1-Hour Analysis

This image is no longer relevant

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair maintains a local uptrend, part of a 4-month trend. The prospects for the U.S. dollar still depend on developments related to the global trade war. If trade agreements are signed and tariffs reduced, the U.S. dollar could begin to recover. However, currently, no trade deals are in place, and Trump continues to make strange decisions and statements that shock market participants. The market expects the worst, and Trump consistently confirms that pessimism.

For June 3, we highlight the following trading levels — 1.0823, 1.0886, 1.0949, 1.1006, 1.1092, 1.1147, 1.1185, 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1534, 1.1607 — as well as the Senkou Span B (1.1275) and Kijun-sen (1.1328) lines. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be considered when determining trading signals. Remember to set a Stop Loss to break even if the price moves 15 pips in the right direction. This will protect against potential losses if the signal turns out to be false.

Inflation data for May are scheduled to be released in the Eurozone on Tuesday. This data could be interesting but is unlikely to significantly influence market sentiment or the European Central Bank's decision on Thursday. In the U.S., the JOLTs job openings report for April will be published, but it is not a significant report.

Illustration Explanations:

  • Support and resistance price levels – thick red lines where movement may end. They are not trading signal sources.
  • Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines—These are strong Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
  • Extremum levels – thin red lines where the price has previously rebounded. These act as trading signal sources.
  • Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.
  • COT Indicator 1 on the charts – the size of the net position for each category of traders.
Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

GBPUSD: plan para la sesión europea del 04 de julio. Informes Commitment of Traders COT (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). La presión sobre la libra se mantiene

Ayer se formaron varios puntos de entrada al mercado. Veamos el gráfico de 5 minutos y analicemos lo que ocurrió. En mi pronóstico matutino presté atención al nivel de 1.3659

Miroslaw Bawulski 07:40 2025-07-04 UTC+2

EURUSD: plan para la sesión europea del 04 de julio. Informes Commitment of Traders COT (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). El dólar se fortaleció tras los sólidos datos del mercado laboral

EURUSD: plan para la sesión europea del 04 de julio. Informes Commitment of Traders COT (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). El dólar se fortaleció tras los sólidos datos

Miroslaw Bawulski 07:40 2025-07-04 UTC+2

GBPUSD: plan para la sesión europea del 03 de julio. Informes Commitment of Traders COT (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). El par GBP/USD se desplomó ante problemas políticos

Ayer se formaron varios puntos de entrada al mercado. Veamos el gráfico de 5 minutos y analicemos lo que ocurrió allí. En mi pronóstico matutino, presté atención al nivel 1.3713

Miroslaw Bawulski 07:32 2025-07-03 UTC+2

EUR/USD: plan para la sesión europea del 03 de julio. Informes Commitment of Traders COT (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). El dólar volvió a caer tras el informe de ADP

EUR/USD: plan para la sesión europea del 03 de julio. Informes Commitment of Traders COT (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). El dólar volvió a caer tras el informe

Miroslaw Bawulski 07:32 2025-07-03 UTC+2

GBP/USD: plan para la sesión europea del 01 de julio. Informes Commitment of Traders COT (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). La libra fue objeto de una gran venta

Ayer se formaron varios puntos de entrada al mercado. Veamos el gráfico de 5 minutos y analicemos lo que ocurrió. En mi pronóstico matutino, presté atención al nivel 1.3766

Miroslaw Bawulski 07:55 2025-07-02 UTC+2

EUR/USD: plan para la sesión europea del 02 de julio. Informes Commitment of Traders COT (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). El euro retrocedió desde el máximo mensual

Ayer se formaron varios puntos de entrada al mercado. Veamos el gráfico de 5 minutos y analicemos lo que ocurrió. En mi pronóstico matutino, presté atención al nivel 1.1806

Miroslaw Bawulski 07:55 2025-07-02 UTC+2

GBP/USD: plan para la sesión europea del 01 de julio. Informes Commitment of Traders COT (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). La libra continúa su crecimiento

Ayer se formaron varios puntos de entrada al mercado. Veamos el gráfico de 5 minutos y analicemos lo que ocurrió. En mi pronóstico matutino presté atención al nivel 1.3723

Miroslaw Bawulski 07:05 2025-07-01 UTC+2

EUR/USD: plan para la sesión europea del 01 de julio. Informes Commitment of Traders COT (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). El euro cerró el mes en un nuevo máximo

EUR/USD: plan para la sesión europea del 01 de julio. Informes Commitment of Traders COT (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). El euro cerró el mes en un nuevo máximo

Miroslaw Bawulski 07:05 2025-07-01 UTC+2

GBP/USD: plan para la sesión europea del 30 de junio. Informes Commitment of Traders COT (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). La libra mantiene oportunidades de subir

El pasado viernes se formaron varios puntos de entrada al mercado. Veamos el gráfico de 5 minutos y analicemos lo que ocurrió. En mi pronóstico matutino, llamé la atención sobre

Miroslaw Bawulski 07:49 2025-06-30 UTC+2

EUR/USD: plan para la sesión europea del 30 de junio. Informes Commitment of Traders COT (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). El euro permanece en el canal

El pasado viernes se formaron varios puntos de entrada al mercado. Veamos el gráfico de 5 minutos y analicemos lo que ocurrió. En mi pronóstico matutino, llamé la atención sobre

Miroslaw Bawulski 07:49 2025-06-30 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.