empty
11.06.2025 09:18 AM
The Market Approaches Its Rubicon

The devil is in the details—and the U.S. and China haven't provided investors with those details regarding their newly reached deal. This lack of transparency risks cutting off the momentum of S&P 500 bulls. The broad equity index has climbed in six of the last seven trading sessions, fueled by optimistic rumors about the U.S.-China trade talks in London—rumors broadly disseminated by White House officials. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the dialogue as constructive, while Commerce Secretary Howard Latnick claimed the talks were going "very, very well."

According to TS Lombard, markets are stuck in a reflexive cycle in which their calmness prompts U.S. policymakers to find new ways to stir up investors. Indeed, U.S. macroeconomic data has been mixed, Treasury yields have stabilized, and the likelihood of a renewed monetary easing cycle from the Federal Reserve is declining. Derivatives are now pricing in a 45 basis point rate cut by year-end. With that in mind, what else is left to drive the S&P 500 higher other than commentary from White House officials?

Fed Rate Expectations Trend

This image is no longer relevant

There is a common belief in the market that China has effectively used its rare earth metals strategy, compelling Washington to make concessions. Meanwhile, the situation in the U.S. is worse than in many other parts of the world. Political uncertainty remains high, inflation risks accelerating, and GDP growth is likely to slow. Unsurprisingly, the S&P 500 is underperforming its international counterparts.

This comes despite individual investors having bought U.S. stocks in 25 of the last 26 weeks, according to a Bank of America survey. Without this retail "crowd," institutional players might have exited long ago. The crowd prefers to listen to optimistic rhetoric rather than analyze hard data—a fact Donald Trump and his team have skillfully exploited to keep the S&P 500 rally alive.

S&P 500 vs. Global Equity Market Performance

This image is no longer relevant

The S&P 500 has now returned to levels seen during the inauguration of the 47th U.S. president. It's been a long journey but a necessary one. The rest of the world completed that path much faster: in 2025, international stocks outperformed their American peers—and that trend may continue.

This image is no longer relevant

Following the OECD, the World Bank has now also downgraded its U.S. GDP forecast. And significantly so—from +2.8% in 2024 to just +1.4% in 2025. That's a 50% cut. Back in January, the estimate stood at +2.3%. The U.S. has only itself to blame—specifically, the White House's protectionist trade policies. According to the World Bank, if tariffs rise by another 10% from current levels, global GDP would expand by just 1.8% instead of 2.3%.

Technical Outlook

The S&P 500 is quietly approaching resistance at 6060 on the daily chart. A test of this level will determine the broader index's fate. If the index bounces off this level, it may be time to exit long positions initiated from 5945. Further buying would be warranted if it breaks through this key pivot level.

Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 3 de julio. Jerome Powell finalmente respondió a Trump.

El par de divisas GBP/USD durante el miércoles se desplomó como una piedra. Sin embargo, cualquier caída del par siempre termina en un crecimiento mucho más fuerte. Por lo tanto

Paolo Greco 07:32 2025-07-03 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 3 de julio. Una gran ley de Trump aprobada, el dólar en mínimos de 4 años.

El par de divisas EUR/USD durante el miércoles se negoció de manera bastante tranquila, si es que se puede aplicar la palabra "tranquila" a la caída diaria del dólar

Paolo Greco 07:31 2025-07-03 UTC+2

Analisis del par GBP/USD. El 1 de julio. Trump el genio y los estadounidenses ciegos. Parte 2.

El par de divisas GBP/USD bajó moderadamente durante el lunes, lo cual no representa ningún problema para la moneda británica. La libra esterlina puede permitirse tranquilamente perder 100 o incluso

Paolo Greco 07:05 2025-07-01 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 1 de julio. Trump el genio y los estadounidenses ciegos. Parte 1.

El par de divisas EUR/USD continuó negociándose el lunes dentro de un rango extremadamente estrecho. El lunes hubo pocas noticias, y las que se publicaron no despertaron mayor interés entre

Paolo Greco 07:05 2025-07-01 UTC+2

El Bitcoin convierte a sus competidores en polvo

Expectativas y realidad. Los creadores de criptomonedas las concebían como un universo donde cualquier token podía competir por el dinero de los inversores. En la práctica, aparte del Bitcoin

Marek Petkovich 12:43 2025-06-30 UTC+2

Analisis del par GBP/USD. El 30 de junio. Nóminas no agrícolas, Powell y desempleo.

El par GBP/USD subió 300 puntos durante la semana pasada y, al parecer, no tiene intención de detenerse. Incluso el viernes, el precio no logró iniciar una corrección bajista

Paolo Greco 07:48 2025-06-30 UTC+2

Analisis del par EUR/USD. El 30 de junio. Inflación europea y nueva ronda de discursos de Lagarde.

El par de divisas EUR/USD continúa su movimiento ascendente durante cinco meses consecutivos. En este período, solo hemos visto algunas correcciones bajistas débiles, que cada vez terminaban con otra caída

Paolo Greco 07:48 2025-06-30 UTC+2

Analisis del par GBP/USD. El 27 de junio. La historia no se repite.

El par de divisas GBP/USD continuó su fuerte movimiento alcista durante el jueves. Desde el inicio de la semana, el dólar estadounidense ha perdido "solo" 330 puntos. Ya hemos mencionado

Paolo Greco 07:31 2025-06-27 UTC+2

Analisis del par EUR/USD. El 27 de junio. ¿Podrá Trump equilibrar la balanza comercial?

El par de divisas EUR/USD se encuentra en un "crecimiento libre" (por analogía con el concepto de "caída libre"). El dólar vuelve a precipitarse al abismo, tal como advertimos

Paolo Greco 07:31 2025-06-27 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 26 de junio. Se acerca el 9 de julio.

El par de divisas GBP/USD durante el miércoles al mediodía se mantuvo en el mismo lugar. Recordemos una antigua señal técnica. Si el precio actualiza un extremo significativo y luego

Paolo Greco 08:30 2025-06-26 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.