Forex Analysis & Reviews: 11.06.2025

11.06.2025 04:39 PM

Oil price ceiling, sanctions, and trials. Oil becomes center of new geopolitical knot

Oil back in the spotlight Brent futures broke above $67.5 per barrel on Wednesday, reaching an eight-week high. Several factors contributed to this surge: President Donald Trump's statement on a completed trade deal with China, renewed tensions between the US and Iran, and API data showing a decline in US crude inventories. Altogether, these developments are creating a sustained picture of short-term supply tightness amid rising political risks.

Fundamental drivers US-China negotiations concluded with a framework agreement to lift export restrictions on rare earth metals. The details remain confidential, but the mere fact of signing has already triggered a market reaction — investors are pricing in the restoration of supply chains and high industrial demand. Donald Trump publicly stated that the deal is ready and only awaits confirmation from Xi Jinping.

Meanwhile, on the eastern front, nothing has changed. Iran continues its pressure rhetoric, threatening strikes on US bases in the region if nuclear talks fail. Washington responded quickly, with the president expressing doubts about the prospects for progress. This adds a geopolitical premium to the market, especially given the ongoing instability in the Middle East.

API data showed a drawdown in US crude inventories by 370,000 barrels, indicating continued tight market conditions. Later this evening, the EIA will release official statistics. If the data confirms the drawdown, Brent may continue its rally towards the next resistance levels.

Long-term outlook The EIA has lowered its forecast for average Brent prices to $61 by the end of 2025 and $59 in 2026. US production is also expected to decline from 13.5 to 13.3 million barrels per day, signaling a gradual tightening of supply, provided that OPEC+ does not significantly ramp up production.

The European Union, meanwhile, is discussing lowering the price cap on Russian oil to $45 per barrel. While the initiative is still under negotiation, analysts warn that without US support, its effect will be limited. At the same time, Russian seaborne exports of Urals and ESPO are recovering: Argus reports price increases of $2.5–2.6, while exporters' gross revenues have jumped by 30%.

Technical picture Brent quotes have firmly settled above $67.5—a bullish signal. The next key resistance lies around $68.6–69.0. A breakout above this zone would open the path to $70. While the upward momentum remains intact, buyers are controlling the market. However, technical indicators are approaching overbought territory, and any weak EIA data or negative news could trigger a pullback.

Support is now seen at $66.8. A loss of this level would serve as the first warning signal for the bulls and could trigger a correction toward the $65.10–65.50 area. As long as Brent stays above $66.8, the short-term trend remains bullish.

The market is entering a phase where every positive development carries a potential threat: the China deal versus sanctions on Russian oil; declining US production versus rising exports from Kazakhstan and Russia. The balance is fragile, but for now, sentiment remains tilted toward growth.

Natural gas: reversal or false hope? US natural gas futures have corrected toward the 200-period moving average at $3.544. This could serve as a foothold for the bulls, especially amid forecasts of hot weather and growing LNG exports.

According to EIA data, the average spot price at Henry Hub is expected to reach $4.00/MMBtu in 2025 and $4.90 in 2026. This price growth directly reflects the imbalance between production and exports.

In the coming years, the US is expected to continue its aggressive expansion in the global gas market, and this factor, despite seasonal corrections, could reverse the long-term trend upward.

Technical analysis If prices hold above $3.544, a new move toward upper resistance at $3.652 is possible. A breakout above this level would open upside potential toward $3.74 and beyond. However, a move back below $3.544 would cancel the bullish scenario and increase the risk of a deeper correction.

Today's market sentiment is being shaped by US macro data (CPI), fresh inventory reports, and political signals from Brussels and London. Oil and gas are hovering at critical levels — and every new headline may trigger either a sharp sell-off or another upward surge.

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*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.

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Forecast

Natalya Andreeva,
Experto analítico de InstaForex
© 2007-2025

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