empty
12.06.2025 04:53 PM
Market sells facts

Markets rise on rumors and fall on facts. For a long time, the S&P 500 had been rising due to investors' confidence in a US-China trade agreement. Once the deal was signed, investors rushed to lock profits on long positions. Donald Trump announced that the deal had been eventually signed, under which US tariffs on imports from China would be 55%, while Chinese tariffs on US exports would be 10%.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick claims that the issue is now settled, and tariffs on imports from China will no longer rise. Treasury Secretary Scott Bassett announced that the 90-day tariff delay could be extended for countries that are negotiating in good faith with the US. These remarks by White House officials were a continuation of the previous tactic aimed at supporting the S&P 500 rally through bold statements. The market, however, preferred to sell the facts.

Daily dynamics of the S&P 500

This image is no longer relevant

The broad stock index has not been this calm since December. Over the past 11 out of the last 12 trading sessions, it has moved by no more than 0.6% in either direction. Sooner or later, the calm in the stock market will be replaced by a storm.

Along with the desire of investors to lock in profits on long positions following the conclusion of the US-China trade deal, the decline of the S&P 500 was also driven by disappointment. A series of positive reports on the health of the US economy, including strong May nonfarm payrolls, led people to believe that everything was fine. However, doubts resurfaced among investors due to the weak momentum in inflation.

US inflation dynamics

This image is no longer relevant

The persistent disinflationary trend may be linked to two reasons: either domestic demand has tanked so much that it no longer supports price increases, or companies, which accumulated significant inventories during the front-loading of US imports, are artificially keeping prices down. This is to observe how consumers react.

Most likely, the S&P 500 took the first reason at face value. Signs of weakness in the US economy spooked the "bulls" and forced the broad stock index to retreat. The benchmark index didn't find support from the likelihood of monetary expansion in the US. Meanwhile, the odds of one act of monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve in 2025 dropped from 39% to 32%, while the chances of three or more steps by the central bank to ease monetary policy rose from 22% to 28%.

This image is no longer relevant

The 21% rally in the S&P 500 from the April lows allowed traders to ignore the underlying issues. However, once the broad stock index retreated, these issues came into focus. As the US economy is cooling, tariffs have been reduced but they are still in place. The reaction of inflation to these tariffs is unknown. Uncertainty breeds fear.

Technical outlook on the S&P 500

On the daily chart of the S&P 500, the inability of the bulls to break above 6,060 became a sign of their weakness and led to the formation of short positions. The reason to increase these positions would be a further drop in the broad stock index below 5,995.

Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 8 de julio. Elegante. Donald Trump prolongó los plazos del "período de gracia".

El par de divisas EUR/USD se negoció durante el lunes con una inclinación bajista, aunque probablemente no hubo motivos de peso para el fortalecimiento del dólar. Recordemos que durante

Paolo Greco 07:54 2025-07-08 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 7 de julio. El mercado vuelve a posponer sus expectativas sobre el recorte de tasas de la Fed.

El par de divisas GBP/USD también se mantuvo en el mismo lugar durante el viernes, ya que en ese día la sesión comercial estadounidense, en esencia, no funcionaba. No hubo

Paolo Greco 07:26 2025-07-07 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 7 de julio. Elon Musk crea el «Partido Americano»

El par de divisas EUR/USD estuvo inmovilizado prácticamente todo el día viernes. Esto se explica fácilmente, ya que el viernes se celebró el Día de la Independencia

Paolo Greco 07:26 2025-07-07 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 3 de julio. Jerome Powell finalmente respondió a Trump.

El par de divisas GBP/USD durante el miércoles se desplomó como una piedra. Sin embargo, cualquier caída del par siempre termina en un crecimiento mucho más fuerte. Por lo tanto

Paolo Greco 07:32 2025-07-03 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 3 de julio. Una gran ley de Trump aprobada, el dólar en mínimos de 4 años.

El par de divisas EUR/USD durante el miércoles se negoció de manera bastante tranquila, si es que se puede aplicar la palabra "tranquila" a la caída diaria del dólar

Paolo Greco 07:31 2025-07-03 UTC+2

Analisis del par GBP/USD. El 1 de julio. Trump el genio y los estadounidenses ciegos. Parte 2.

El par de divisas GBP/USD bajó moderadamente durante el lunes, lo cual no representa ningún problema para la moneda británica. La libra esterlina puede permitirse tranquilamente perder 100 o incluso

Paolo Greco 07:05 2025-07-01 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 1 de julio. Trump el genio y los estadounidenses ciegos. Parte 1.

El par de divisas EUR/USD continuó negociándose el lunes dentro de un rango extremadamente estrecho. El lunes hubo pocas noticias, y las que se publicaron no despertaron mayor interés entre

Paolo Greco 07:05 2025-07-01 UTC+2

El Bitcoin convierte a sus competidores en polvo

Expectativas y realidad. Los creadores de criptomonedas las concebían como un universo donde cualquier token podía competir por el dinero de los inversores. En la práctica, aparte del Bitcoin

Marek Petkovich 12:43 2025-06-30 UTC+2

Analisis del par GBP/USD. El 30 de junio. Nóminas no agrícolas, Powell y desempleo.

El par GBP/USD subió 300 puntos durante la semana pasada y, al parecer, no tiene intención de detenerse. Incluso el viernes, el precio no logró iniciar una corrección bajista

Paolo Greco 07:48 2025-06-30 UTC+2

Analisis del par EUR/USD. El 30 de junio. Inflación europea y nueva ronda de discursos de Lagarde.

El par de divisas EUR/USD continúa su movimiento ascendente durante cinco meses consecutivos. En este período, solo hemos visto algunas correcciones bajistas débiles, que cada vez terminaban con otra caída

Paolo Greco 07:48 2025-06-30 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.