Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Thursday, and the market this week has shown a clear intention to continue the upward trend that has lasted for five months. Yesterday, aside from Jerome Powell's speech, which fully repeated his remarks from Tuesday, no noteworthy information entered the market. Yet the dollar lost another 100 pips. Thus, we do not expect today's U.S. GDP and durable goods orders reports to impact market sentiment significantly. They might locally support the U.S. dollar at the time of release, but what difference would it make? Will the dollar's five-month decline end simply because the U.S. economy contracted less than expected? Unlikely.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among Thursday's fundamental events, the most notable is the speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, who had already spoken earlier this week but did not provide any meaningful insights. The same goes for Christine Lagarde, who also spoke this week without sharing anything notable. In the U.S., several Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak, and recently, many of them have started to express support for a rate cut in July. Clearly, the more of these opinions we encounter, the more likely the dollar will decline.

The trade war remains the top priority for the market, and there are still no signs of resolution or de-escalation. The situation could soon reach a boiling point, as Donald Trump has not managed to sign a single trade deal (aside from the one with the United Kingdom). His political approval rating has dropped to its lowest level.

Conclusions:

On the fourth trading day of the week, both currency pairs may continue to rise as the war in the Middle East is over while the global trade war is ongoing. We'll soon find out whether the U.S. will sign a trade agreement with anyone aside from the United Kingdom. Many important events are ahead, and the dollar has an excellent chance to continue its decline.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.