Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are a few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Wednesday, and none of them are particularly important. In the Eurozone, the unemployment report will be released, and in the U.S., the ADP report will be published, which reflects changes in private-sector employment—a counterpart to the Non-Farm Payrolls report. Novice traders need to remember that the ADP and Non-Farm Payrolls reports rarely align in their figures or trends. Two reports that reflect roughly the same data can easily show opposite results. The market is well aware of this and places more emphasis on Non-Farm Payrolls.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among Wednesday's fundamental events, we can note another speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, who has been speaking almost daily over the past week and a half, as well as a speech by ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane. However, as before, we do not expect any important statements from representatives of the ECB.

For the market, the trade war remains the most significant factor, with no signs of resolution or de-escalation in sight. In the near future, the situation could reach a boiling point, as Donald Trump has not signed a single trade agreement (except with the United Kingdom). The deal with China is not yet being taken into account, as it remains unclear what kind of deal it is. The European Union has reportedly expressed interest in signing a deal with the U.S., but has presented several demands that Trump can easily choose not to accept.

In addition, one should not forget the standoff between Musk and Trump, which could potentially escalate into something close to a civil war or revolution. All these developments clearly do not increase the market's willingness to buy the dollar.

Conclusions:

On the third trading day of the week, both currency pairs may continue to rise, as the war in the Middle East has ended, the Global Trade War continues, and Trump continues to make decisions and statements that are hardly grounds for expecting a bright future in the U.S. In the near future, Trump may very well raise tariffs on many countries, since there's no sign of any trade deals being signed. We have also already established that trade agreements do not necessarily imply the removal of import tariffs in the U.S.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.