empty
07.07.2025 11:48 AM
Forecast for EUR/USD on July 7, 2025

On Friday, the EUR/USD pair traded very weakly, with trader activity extremely low due to the U.S. Independence Day. As a result, no trading signals, important breakouts, or other chart patterns were formed. Today, another rebound from the 1.1802 level (the third one) may work in favor of the U.S. currency and trigger a decline toward the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1712. A firm consolidation above 1.1802 would open the way for further growth toward the next Fibonacci level of 161.8% at 1.1888.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed downward wave broke below the low of the previous one, while the most recent upward wave surpassed the previous high. Thus, the current trend remains bullish. The lack of real progress in U.S. trade negotiations and the low likelihood of trade agreements with most countries are forcing bears to hold back on initiating attacks.

There was no significant news background on Friday. In the Eurozone, Christine Lagarde gave yet another speech that offered no new information compared to her previous ones. However, toward the end of last week, Donald Trump announced his readiness to raise tariffs for all countries that fail to reach trade agreements with the U.S. As a result, tariffs may return this week to levels seen three months ago—meaning to their maximum. I believe that the tariff hike may trigger new bullish momentum, as Washington's trade policy has not softened over the past three months. Trump gave countries a chance to make deals, but his terms are unacceptable to most of them. In three months of negotiations, only three agreements have been signed. In my view, this indicates that the total number of deals will remain low, which suggests that Trump's "plan" is failing.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the 1.1680 level and continues to rise toward the next Fibonacci retracement level at 161.8% – 1.1851. A rebound from the 1.1851 level may work in favor of the U.S. dollar and trigger a minor decline within the current upward trend channel. A breakout above 1.1851 would increase the likelihood of continued growth toward the next level at 1.2066. A bearish divergence is forming on the RSI indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

This image is no longer relevant

During the most recent reporting week, professional traders opened 2,980 long positions and closed 6,602 short positions. The sentiment among the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump and continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 224,000, while short positions total 112,000. The gap between them (with rare exceptions) continues to widen. This means the euro remains in demand, while the dollar does not. The situation remains unchanged.

For twenty-one consecutive weeks, large players have been reducing short positions and increasing longs. The monetary policy divergence between the ECB and the Fed is significant, but Donald Trump's policies are a more important factor for traders, as they may trigger a recession in the U.S. economy along with many other long-term structural problems for the country.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

  • Eurozone – German Industrial Production (06:00 UTC)
  • Eurozone – Retail Sales Change (09:00 UTC)

The economic calendar for July 7 contains two entries, neither of which is particularly important. The influence of the news background on market sentiment Monday may be extremely weak, and this data is unlikely to help the bears.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trader Tips:

Today, I would consider selling the pair in case of another rebound from the 1.1802 level on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1712. I previously recommended buying after the rebound from 1.1454, with targets at 1.1574, 1.1645, 1.1712, and 1.1802—all of which have been achieved. New buy positions are possible if the pair consolidates above 1.1802, with a target of 1.1888.

Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.1574–1.1066 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.

Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Grigory Sokolov
Start trade
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Bitcoin. El fortalecimiento del dólar podría dar un giro bajista al mercado de criptomonedas

Hoy, el mercado se centrará en la publicación del informe sobre la inflación en Estados Unidos, que se espera que muestre no solo que ha dejado de bajar, sino

Pati Gani 13:12 2025-06-11 UTC+2

Bitcoin. El logro de nuevos máximos puede detenerse

El precio del Bitcoin superó momentáneamente el nuevo nivel histórico de 111 000, pero no logró consolidarse por encima de él. El apoyo proviene, tanto para él como para

Pati Gani 10:53 2025-05-22 UTC+2

EUR/USD. El 12 de mayo. El conflicto en Ucrania podría llegar a su fin.

Buenos días, estimados traders. El par EUR/USD el viernes subió hacia la zona de resistencia 1,1265 – 1,1282, rebotó desde allí y giró a favor del dólar estadounidense. El proceso

Samir Klishi 10:27 2025-05-12 UTC+2

Pronóstico para el gas al 8 de abril de 2025

Gas natural (NG) Ni al final de la semana pasada, ni mucho menos al comienzo de la actual, la cotización del gas natural logró superar la resistencia de 4.200, reforzada

Laurie Bailey 08:11 2025-04-08 UTC+2

Pronóstico del gas para el 17 de marzo de 2025

Gas natural (NG) La jornada de hoy se abrió por encima de la línea indicadora Kruzenshtern en el marco diario. Al mismo tiempo, el oscilador Marlin cambió de dirección hacia

Laurie Bailey 07:02 2025-03-17 UTC+2

Pronóstico para el Bitcoin el 21 de febrero de 2025

Bitcoin El Bitcoin ha cambiado de opinión sobre el desarrollo de una caída hacia soportes objetivos cómodos, y en su lugar, siguiendo el sentimiento de riesgo general, ha revertido desde

Laurie Bailey 07:23 2025-02-21 UTC+2

Bitcoin - análisis técnico de la situación

Viernes, y el Bitcoin sigue esperando. Ninguna de las partes enfrentadas tiene prisa por presentarse y ser activa. En la incertidumbre actual, el posicionamiento de los principales índices de referencia

Evangelos Poulakis 07:45 2025-02-14 UTC+2

Previsión para el gas natural (GN) del 5 de febrero de 2025

En el gráfico semanal la semana pasada el precio se revirtió desde el nivel de soporte 3.017 - desde los máximos de septiembre 2024, agosto 2023, febrero 2023 y también

Laurie Bailey 07:51 2025-02-05 UTC+2

#NDX - análisis técnico de la situación

A finales del año pasado, el índice marcó un nuevo máximo histórico (22141), tras lo cual se detuvo la subida, comenzó la formación de la corrección y la consolidación. Ahora

Evangelos Poulakis 07:24 2025-02-04 UTC+2

Bitcoin 30 Enero - análisis técnico de la situación

A pesar de marcar un nuevo máximo la semana pasada (109986), el Bitcoin detuvo su tendencia alcista y comenzó a formar incertidumbre. Hasta ahora, el formato semanal ha proyectado

Evangelos Poulakis 07:24 2025-01-30 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.