empty
09.07.2025 10:33 AM
The ECB Is in a Good Position

While the euro remains under pressure against the dollar, risking a complete loss of its bullish momentum, one European policymaker believes the European Central Bank should not be overly concerned about temporarily missing the 2% inflation target and should not rush into further interest rate changes.

This image is no longer relevant

"We should not worry about the deviations we are likely to see in the short term," said the head of Croatia's central bank in an interview. Vujcic, one of the more hawkish members of the Governing Council, stated that the ECB can afford to wait, and that incoming data will determine what needs to be done next.

Indeed, hasty decisions can lead to undesirable consequences. The economic landscape in Europe remains uneven due to U.S. tariffs, and further monetary easing could accelerate inflation, which has only just returned to levels acceptable for the ECB. However, it is important to consider not only the inflation rate, but also other factors such as employment, economic growth, and the geopolitical situation.

Still, maintaining the status quo is not an ideal option either. Keeping interest rates unchanged at high levels for an extended period could slow the already weak pace of economic growth in the euro area. Therefore, the ECB must carefully weigh all pros and cons before making any decisions.

At a time when the global economy is facing numerous challenges, central banks need to remain flexible and adaptable. Excessive focus on hitting the inflation target could lead to the neglect of other important aspects of economic stability.

Some of Vujcic's colleagues, including Olli Rehn from Finland and Francois Villeroy de Galhau from France, have recently voiced concerns that the inflation rate may not reach 2% for an extended period—especially if the euro continues to strengthen. After eight quarter-point rate cuts over the past year, officials have indicated that the easing cycle is nearing its end. Given that inflation has reached its target and the economy remains resilient to various external shocks—from trade to wars—investors expect a pause this month, but at least one more cut before the end of the year.

"We are in a good position, with both inflation and interest rates at 2%," said Vujcic. "At this stage, we can wait for more data," he added, describing inflation risks as largely balanced on both sides.

Vujcic emphasized that by the September meeting, the ECB will have July and August inflation data as well as second-quarter GDP figures. "All of this will give us more clarity about what we need to do," he said.

As for the current EUR/USD technical picture, buyers now need to focus on reclaiming the 1.1740 level. Only then will it be possible to aim for a test of 1.1790. From there, a move toward 1.1825 could follow, though achieving that without support from large market participants may be difficult. The most distant target is the 1.1866 high. In the event of a decline, I expect significant buying interest only around the 1.1690 level. If there is no reaction there, it would be preferable to wait for a drop to 1.1650 or consider opening long positions from 1.1620.

Regarding the current GBP/USD technical outlook, pound buyers need to break through the nearest resistance at 1.3605. Only this will allow a move toward 1.3640, above which further gains may be difficult. The most distant target is the 1.3680 level. If the pair falls, bears will try to regain control over the 1.3560 level. If successful, a break below this range would deal a serious blow to bullish positions and push GBP/USD down to the 1.3530 low, with the prospect of reaching 1.3490.

Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Pavel Vlasov
Start trade
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

WTI - West Texas Intermediate. Análisis de precios. Pronóstico. Trump amenaza a India y China con aranceles adicionales sobre la importación de petróleo ruso, lo que genera preocupaciones sobre la redirección de los suministros.

El petróleo West Texas Intermediate (WTI), que es el referente del crudo estadounidense, rebotó desde un mínimo de cinco semanas y subió por encima de los $63,50 en medio

Irina Yanina 04:25 2025-08-07 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 7 de agosto. ¿Qué nos tiene preparado el Banco de Inglaterra?

El par de divisas GBP/USD el miércoles volvió a negociarse con bastante calma, pero la balanza poco a poco se inclina a favor de la libra (y también del euro)

Paolo Greco 04:25 2025-08-07 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 7 de agosto. Trump inicia una nueva ronda de escalada en la guerra comercial.

El par de divisas EUR/USD durante la mayor parte del miércoles volvió a negociarse con una volatilidad muy baja. Esta semana hay realmente muy pocos eventos macroeconómicos, pero al mismo

Paolo Greco 04:25 2025-08-07 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 6 de agosto. La libra espera el veredicto del Banco de Inglaterra.

El par de divisas GBP/USD se mantuvo prácticamente sin cambios durante la mayor parte del martes. En principio, no hay nada sorprendente en esto, ya que al menos

Paolo Greco 04:23 2025-08-06 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 6 de agosto. La confianza en las instituciones de EE.UU. cae rápidamente.

El par de divisas EUR/USD durante el martes volvió a negociarse de forma bastante tranquila, como si la semana pasada no hubiera sucedido nada grave ni resonante. Pero

Paolo Greco 04:23 2025-08-06 UTC+2

Libra británica. Avance de la semana

La libra tendrá un contexto noticioso esta semana más interesante que el euro. La diferencia, en esencia, es solo una: esta semana el BoE será el último del "gran trío"

Chin Zhao 07:42 2025-08-04 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 4 de agosto. Y ahora la Fed no tiene opción.

El par de divisas GBP/USD al cierre del viernes también mostró un crecimiento bastante fuerte y una alta volatilidad, pero al mismo tiempo no logró consolidarse por encima

Paolo Greco 07:41 2025-08-04 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 4 de agosto. Empezó con buen pie, terminó en desgracia.

El par de divisas EUR/USD cayó prácticamente toda la semana pasada, y había motivos muy concretos y razones sumamente razonables para ello. Sin embargo, el viernes ocurrió un colapso

Paolo Greco 07:41 2025-08-04 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 31 de julio. La espiral inflacionaria en EE.UU. comienza a girar.

El par de divisas GBP/USD el miércoles retrocedió ligeramente al alza, y durante la mayor parte del día la negociación fue bastante aburrida y tranquila. Tal como anticipamos el miércoles

Paolo Greco 04:00 2025-07-31 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 31 de julio. ¿Acuerdo entre la UE y EE.UU. – ficción?

El par de divisas EUR/USD mantuvo el movimiento bajista el miércoles. De todas las publicaciones macroeconómicas de ese día hablaremos en otros de nuestros artículos; en este, nos centraremos

Paolo Greco 04:00 2025-07-31 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.