The wave pattern for GBP/USD continues to indicate the formation of an upward impulse wave pattern. The wave picture closely resembles that of EUR/USD, since the U.S. dollar remains the sole driver of recent movements. Demand for the dollar is falling across the entire market spectrum, which is why many instruments show similar dynamics. Wave 2 of the upward trend section has taken on a single-wave form. Within the assumed Wave 3, Waves 1, 2, 3, 4, and presumably 5 have already been formed. Therefore, this wave sequence appears complete, and the instrument is now moving toward building a corrective structure.

It's important to remember that much of the current activity in the currency market depends on Donald Trump's policies—and not just trade-related ones. Occasionally, positive news emerges from the U.S., but the market remains fixated on overall economic uncertainty, Trump's contradictory decisions and statements, and the White House's hostile and protectionist stance on foreign policy. As a result, the dollar must work very hard to convert even positive news into increased demand on the market.

The GBP/USD pair has fallen by 170 basis points over the past week, while the market continues to ignore Trump's new tariff announcements. Based on this alone, I do not expect a prolonged strengthening of the U.S. currency. The market is capable of producing any kind of movement, and price action does not always align with the news backdrop. However, I try to identify high-probability patterns rather than attempt to predict low-probability scenarios. That's why I believe the current decline in the instrument will soon be over.

The current wave count implies further decline—i.e., dollar strength. But how can market participants increase dollar positions when Trump announces new tariffs nearly every day? I'm afraid we won't see a full three-wave corrective structure this time either.

Aside from Trump's tariff policy, there is no significant news this week. Only on Friday will the UK release several reports, the most notable of which are GDP and industrial production figures. I believe that under current circumstances, these data will have little impact on market sentiment. There are also no major events expected from the U.S. this week. This evening, the FOMC meeting minutes will be released, but they usually only restate the conclusions of the meeting, which are made public immediately afterward.

Once again, the dollar's fate lies in the hands of the market. Market participants could resume selling the dollar at any moment, and that wouldn't be strange or illogical. I would prefer to see a complete three-wave correction, but at this stage, the dollar's decline is being delayed by the fact that the announced tariffs are scheduled to take effect later. For now, the dollar remains relatively stable.

General Conclusions

The wave pattern for GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with an upward impulse trend segment. Under Donald Trump, the markets may face many more shocks and reversals that could significantly affect the wave picture, but for now, the working scenario remains intact. The targets for the current upward trend section are now located around the 1.4017 level, which corresponds to the 261.8% Fibonacci extension from the assumed global Wave 2. At present, a corrective wave sequence has likely begun. Traditionally, it should consist of three waves, but in reality, it may turn out to be significantly shorter.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex patterns are difficult to trade and often require revisions.
2. If you're uncertain about what's happening in the market, it's better to stay out.
3. There is never 100% certainty in market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.