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Bitcoin is regaining strength after the November sell-off, but it is still too early to talk about a reversal of the bear market. Many experts predict the onset of a cryptocurrency winter, which could keep BTC trading in the $80,000 – $100,000 range for a considerable time.
However, fundamental factors such as central banks' monetary policy easing and declining inflation could positively affect risk assets, including Bitcoin. Institutional investors, who were the driving force behind growth in 2024-2025, are currently being cautious and are not rushing to increase their positions in cryptocurrency. At the same time, there are positive signals, as purchases from large and institutional players are gradually returning to the market. Additionally, potential positive news from the regulatory sphere could support the market.
Amidst the market direction uncertainty, another interesting piece of news has caught attention. Reports have emerged that South Korea plans to introduce regulations requiring cryptocurrency exchanges to compensate clients for losses resulting from hacks or system failures, even if the platform is not at fault.
This step will certainly set a precedent in the regulation of cryptocurrencies, where the responsibility of platforms for securing users' funds has remained vague. The new measure aims to increase investor trust in cryptocurrency exchanges and reduce risks associated with storing digital assets on online platforms. It is expected to compel exchanges to enhance security measures, invest in more reliable protection systems, and insure risks to minimize the chances of hacks and technical failures.
However, this approach may elicit mixed reactions from crypto exchanges. Imposing unconditional responsibility, even when the platform is not at fault, could lead to higher operational costs and lower profitability. Some exchanges might even consider exiting the South Korean market if the new rules prove too burdensome.
Regarding the technical picture for Bitcoin, buyers are currently focused on reclaiming the $90,300 level, which opens a direct path to $92,800, and it is then just a reach to the $95,000 mark. The most distant target is the peak around $97,300; breaking this level would signal attempts to return to a bull market. In the event of a Bitcoin drop, I expect buyers to step in at $88,200. A return of the trading instrument below this area could quickly push BTC down to around $85,800, with the most distant target being $83,200.
For Ethereum, a clear consolidation above $3,126 opens a direct path to $3,233. The most distant target is the peak around $3,362; breaking this level would signal a strengthening of bullish market sentiment and renewed buyer interest. If Ethereum drops, I expect buyers to emerge at $3,023. If the trading instrument returns below this area, it could quickly drop to around $2,924, with the most distant target being $2,858.
What to See on the Chart:
Crossing or testing the moving averages tends to either halt the market or set a new market impulse.
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