empty
26.10.2023 09:38 AM
USD/JPY breaks control level

This image is no longer relevant

The USD/JPY pair finally broke through the 150 barrier, which had remained untouchable since early October. What is more, this morning, the currency pair surged to a new yearly high of 150.61, despite the increased risk of Japan's intervention. Let's find out what triggered this rally and how long it might last.

USD launched a rally

Despite market speculation that the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its current tightening cycle, the US currency remains robust. Yesterday, the dollar index, which measures the US dollar against a basket of six other major currencies, rose by 0.3%, reaching a week-high of 106.5. The greenback's growth was fueled by several positive fundamental factors, but the rise in risk-averse sentiment was the primary driver. Last Wednesday, the Dow Jones index fell by 0.32% and the Nasdaq lost 2.43% due to weak corporate reports from top US companies.

Rodrigo Catril, a currency strategist at the National Australia Bank, said that markets once again showed signs of concern regarding decreasing corporate earnings in the US, contributing to the dollar's volatile ascent.

The escalating geopolitical tension is one more factor that encouraged buyers of the greenback, viewed as one of the best safe-haven assets. Investors are currently wary of the conflict escalation in the Middle East, especially after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu mentioned preparations for a ground invasion into Gaza.

In addition, strong US macroeconomic statistics also boosted the dollar. Data released on Wednesday showed that September's US single-family new home sales sharply rose to a 19-month high of 759,000, significantly surpassing the forecast of 680,000. These positive figures, coupled with optimistic business activity data released earlier, increased the chances of a "soft landing" for the US economy, slightly raising the likelihood of further tightening in the US this year.

The main driver for USD/JPY:

A rise in hawkish expectations revived the growth in yields for 10-year US Treasury bonds, which reached a 16-year peak of 5.0% earlier this week. This provided strong support for the USD/JPY pair. The yen is highly sensitive to the rise in yields of 10-year US bonds since the Bank of Japan intentionally keeps its equivalent Japanese indicator close to zero. Now, traders are betting on a further rally in Treasury yields as more robust US macroeconomic data is anticipated.

The publication of the GDP data for the third quarter will be the main event on Thursday. Economists are forecasting stunning US economic growth from 2.1% to 4.2% during the period from July to September. If the forecast plays out, this could further fuel market expectations for an additional rate hike in the US.

In the event of this, both the yield of US government bonds and the dollar may jump. This can push the USD/JPY pair to new highs. Currently, the major currency pair is trading at a 30-year peak. Yesterday, it crossed the so-called "red line" of 150. Many traders believe that reaching this point might provoke currency intervention from Tokyo. This morning, the pair continued its upward movement.

risky.

This image is no longer relevant

What risks may traders face?

At the time of preparing this report, the US dollar had strengthened against the yen to 150.61. In response to the sharp weakening of the JPY, the Japanese government issued a warning to currency speculators. Early in the morning, Japan's Finance Minister Shinichi Suzuki cautioned investors against further selling off the yen. He stated that authorities are closely monitoring the situation. He warned that they were carefully watching currency movements. In the event of continued pressure on the yen, they would take all necessary measures.

Notably, Japanese officials previously indicated that the trigger for intervention might not be a specific level but rather the speed of the yen's decline. If the government deems the decline too rapid, they might intervene.

Despite the USD/JPY pair making a significant move yesterday, surpassing the key threshold of 150 and settling above it, its volatility reached its lowest level since December 2019 in just a week.

According to analyst Koji Fukaya, the relatively low fluctuations in the exchange rate are unlikely to deter Japan from intervening this time. The fact is that Japanese authorities have recently revised their definition of excessive speculative actions. Earlier this month, the finance minister stated that gradual, one-directional currency movements could be considered excessive.

Most of his colleagues also believe that a continued rise in the USD/JPY pair might prompt Tokyo to act soon. Therefore, going long on this instrument is now highly risky.

Аlena Ivannitskaya,
Chuyên gia phân tích của InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Аlena Ivannitskaya
Start trade
Kiếm lợi nhuận từ những biến đổi giá của tiền điện tử với InstaForex.
Tải MetaTrader 4 và mở giao dịch đầu tiên của bạn.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    THAM GIA CUỘC THI

Các bài báo được đề xuất

Tin tức thị trường Mỹ ngày 15 tháng 7

Cổ phiếu của Gilead Sciences đang có dấu hiệu tăng trưởng sau khi phục hồi mạnh mẽ từ đường hỗ trợ, với dự báo sẽ tăng lên mức cao nhất

Ekaterina Kiseleva 14:16 2025-07-15 UTC+2

Bitcoin Vượt Mốc $120K, Nasdaq Lên Mức Cao Mới: Thị Trường Hào Hứng Chờ Đợi Động Lực Mới

Thứ Ba Khởi Đầu Chuỗi Dữ Liệu Kinh Tế Quan Trọng và Mùa Kết Quả Kinh Doanh Nasdaq Thiết Lập Kỷ Lục Thứ Bảy Từ Ngày 27 Tháng

Thomas Frank 10:18 2025-07-15 UTC+2

Thị trường căng thẳng: Trump nhắm vào EU, dữ liệu lạm phát và Trung Quốc được chú ý

Hợp đồng tương lai S&P 500 và châu Âu giảm, trong khi chỉ số Nikkei giữ vững. Đồng Euro giảm sau khi Trump đe dọa áp thuế 30%

14:48 2025-07-14 UTC+2

Bản Tin Tiêu Điểm Thị Trường Mỹ Ngày 14 Tháng 7

Donald Trump đã công bố mức thuế 30% đối với hàng hóa từ EU và Mexico. Phản ứng ban đầu của thị trường là tiêu cực, nhưng chỉ số S&P

Ekaterina Kiseleva 14:36 2025-07-14 UTC+2

Thị trường căng thẳng: Trump đối đầu với EU, lạm phát và dữ liệu Trung Quốc sắp được công bố

Hợp đồng tương lai S&P 500 và EU giảm, Nikkei ổn định Euro giảm sau khi Trump đe dọa áp thuế 30% lên EU Dữ liệu lạm phát

Thomas Frank 10:40 2025-07-14 UTC+2

Bùng Nổ Cổ Phiếu: Nvidia Vượt Mốc 4 Nghìn Tỷ USD, Bitcoin Không Tụt Lại, Dow và S&P Đang Tăng

Chỉ số tăng: Dow Jones tăng 0,43%, S&P 500 tăng 0,27%, Nasdaq tăng 0,09%. Nvdia kết thúc giao dịch với định giá lịch sử, vượt hơn $4 nghìn tỷ. Delta

Thomas Frank 08:37 2025-07-11 UTC+2

Nvidia Lập Kỳ Tích: Thị Trường Tăng Trưởng, Vốn Hóa Công Ty Vượt Ngưỡng $4 Nghìn Tỷ

Chỉ số tăng: Dow Jones — 0,49%, S&P 500 — 0,61%, Nasdaq — 0,95% Nvidia trở thành công ty đầu tiên đạt giá trị thị trường 4 nghìn

Thomas Frank 10:46 2025-07-10 UTC+2

Tin Tức Thị Trường Hoa Kỳ Ngày 9 Tháng 7

Các chỉ số chứng khoán Mỹ đã kết thúc phiên giao dịch với những biến động nhỏ: chỉ số S&P 500 giảm nhẹ, Nasdaq 100 có mức tăng

Ekaterina Kiseleva 14:03 2025-07-09 UTC+2

Trump Trở Lại Hành Động: Áp Đặt Thuế 50% Đối Với Đồng, Thêm Cú Đánh Lên Trung Quốc, EU

Trump Công Bố Thuế Nhập Khẩu Đồng 50% Công Bố Các Loại Thuế Mới Đối Với Chất Bán Dẫn, Dược Phẩm Tổng Thống Trump Nói Đàm Phán Với EU, Trung

Thomas Frank 09:49 2025-07-09 UTC+2

Tin Tức Thị Trường Hoa Kỳ Ngày 8 Tháng 7

Thị trường chứng khoán Mỹ cho thấy động lực hạn chế giữa bối cảnh không chắc chắn về khả năng Donald Trump trở lại với các mức thuế quan

Ekaterina Kiseleva 12:08 2025-07-08 UTC+2
Không thể nói chuyện ngay bây giờ?
Đặt câu hỏi của bạn trong phần trò chuyện.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.