GBP/USD 5-Minute Analysis
On Tuesday, the GBP/USD currency pair failed to continue the upward movement it had started so vigorously on Monday. It is worth recalling that there were no solid reasons for the pound to rise or the dollar to fall at the beginning of the week. We saw a routine increase in the pair, driven by the broader decline of the U.S. dollar in recent months. As it turns out, new tariffs or sanctions from Donald Trump are no longer necessary for the dollar to weaken again. The pound sterling continues to grow for any reason — or no reason at all.
From a technical standpoint, the GBP/USD pair is currently near the 1.3439 level, which marks the pound's highest point in the last three years. Last week, the price corrected slightly downward, but the correction ended very quickly. The uptrend is beyond doubt or question and could continue indefinitely. The U.S. dollar may continue to fall against all of its major competitors, as Donald Trump's actions provoke an evident market backlash. After all, U.S. macroeconomic data is not bad enough to justify a relentless decline in the dollar. However, what concerns the market is the American economy's prospects, which remain elusive despite Trump's promises of a "bright future."
Only one trading signal was formed yesterday in the 5-minute timeframe, and it occurred overnight. The pair began falling during the Asian session, and by the time the European session opened, the price had already moved far from where the signal was formed. As a result, it was only possible to enter the market with short positions at night.
COT Report
COT Reports for the British Pound show that commercial traders' sentiment has been constantly changing in recent years. The red and blue lines, representing the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, frequently intersect and are mostly near the zero mark. Currently, they are close to each other again, indicating approximately equal numbers of long and short positions.
In the weekly timeframe, the price initially broke through the 1.3154 level, then overcame the trend line, returned to 1.3154, and broke through again. Breaking the trend line typically means a high probability of further pound decline. However, we see the dollar consistently falling due to Donald Trump. Thus, news about the Trade War could continue pushing the pound higher despite technical factors.
According to the latest COT report for the British pound, the "Non-commercial" group opened 8,300 BUY contracts and closed 5,700 SELL contracts. As a result, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 14,000 contracts.
The fundamental background still provides no reason for long-term pound purchases, and the currency itself realistically has chances for a continued global downward trend. Recently, the pound has risen significantly, but the reason remains the same – Donald Trump's policies.
GBP/USD 1-Hour Analysis
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair paused briefly, as if hesitating about its next move, and then resumed its rise. The downward correction ended before it even really began. We may not have seen it had Trump not reconsidered firing Jerome Powell at the start of last week. The pound sterling has shown remarkable growth in recent months, though it cannot take credit for this alone. The entire upward movement of the pound has been driven by the dollar's decline, triggered by Donald Trump — and this decline is not over yet. Thus, chaos, uncertainty, and panic dominate the market, while logic and consistency in price action are noticeably absent.
For April 30, the key trading levels are identified as 1.2691–1.2701, 1.2796–1.2816, 1.2863, 1.2981–1.2987, 1.3050, 1.3125, 1.3212, 1.3288, 1.3358, 1.3439, 1.3489, and 1.3537. The Senkou Span B line (1.3082) and Kijun-sen line (1.3345) can also serve as signal sources. Moving the Stop Loss to breakeven once the price moves 20 pips in the right direction is recommended. Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day and should be considered when identifying trade signals.
No important events or reports are scheduled in the UK for Wednesday, while in the U.S., the GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditure reports are expected — though they are not considered particularly impactful. We believe the market will likely ignore these releases altogether. Still, the British currency demonstrates that it is ready to appreciate even in the absence of news.
Illustration Explanations:
- Support and resistance price levels – thick red lines where movement may end. They are not trading signal sources.
- Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines—These are strong Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
- Extremum levels – thin red lines where the price has previously rebounded. These act as trading signal sources.
- Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.
- COT Indicator 1 on the charts – the size of the net position for each category of traders.
