Forex Analysis & Reviews: 23.07.2024 - Oil will skip the elections

Live Chat

InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing

This section features the most important information about trading with InstaForex. We provide both analysis from leading experts for experienced traders and articles on trading conditions for beginners. Our services will help increase your profit potential.

Become Trader

Account Opening

See also

Trading Conditions

Forex Analytics

Charts

This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.

Start as Beginner

How to start trading

Useful information

Training and recordings

InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.

Become Investor

PAMM System

ForexCopy System

Passive investments

OYS account

Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.

Become Partner

Main Page

Partner Area

Advantages for Affiliates

Registration

This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.

All Promo Campaigns

Bonuses

Contests

Events

Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.

Full details

Forums

We are in social networks

Forex humour

Forex Portal

InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.

Learn More

History

Why Choose Us

InstaSport

Regulation

Company News

Awards

InstaForex Stars

InstaForex Offline

Headquarters

Key documents

Social Responsibility

InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally

23.07.2024 02:06 PM

Oil will skip the elections

While investors are engrossed in Trump trading, the oil market offers a safe haven. According to Citi, neither Republicans nor Democrats propose radical changes in their programs that would impact oil and gas operations. Instead of reacting sensitively to the approaching US presidential elections, as other assets do, black gold is focused on fundamental factors, which, unfortunately, are not in Brent's favor.

OPEC+'s gradual withdrawal from production cut commitments is formally due to the stabilization of the oil market. However, in reality, the void does not remain empty. US oil production has reached a record high of 13.3 million barrels per day. This seems at least strange against the backdrop of drilling rigs falling to their lowest levels since December 2021. However, everything makes sense when considering higher productivity per well and the use of some reserves from drilled but uncompleted wells.

Trends in Oil Production and Number of Drilling Rigs in the US.

Members of OPEC+ need to consider changing the plan to gradually withdraw from the production cut commitments. The alliance will have to do this if Brent continues to decline. According to Morgan Stanley, the black gold market will balance in the fourth quarter, and in 2025, there will be a supply surplus, leading to a drop in the North Sea grade to $70 per barrel.

Fears of increased production and concerns about global demand influence the decline in Brent prices. According to StoneX, global oil inventories increased in the week leading up to July 19. This process is active in North America and Asia, while Europe has not seen a clear trend. There is certainly logic in such inventory dynamics. Statistics indicate a slowdown in the US economy, and China has recently released disappointing data regularly.

Even the easing of monetary policy by the People's Bank of China has not significantly impressed Brent enthusiasts. To drastically change the situation, more aggressive rate cuts are required. And there are still risks of Donald Trump returning to the White House with his protectionist policies, which, according to UBS, could slow China's GDP growth by almost half.

Neither Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, fires in Canada, nor skirmishes between Israel and Hezbollah are helping black gold. The North Sea grade ignores politics and geopolitics and focuses instead on the economy.

Technically, on the daily chart, Brent activated and completed the 1-2-3 reversal pattern. As a result, the first of two previously set short targets at $82.4 and $81 per barrel was achieved. It makes sense to hold and periodically increase positions formed from $84.

You have already liked this post today

*Disclaimer: The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.