Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

No macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Monday. Thus, traders will have nothing to react to during the day. There is a high probability of flat or weak movements unless Donald Trump makes new high-profile statements that shock the markets. The euro is close to breaking through the ascending trendline again, and the British pound has already done so. However, the fundamental background related to the trade war remains much more important than technical signals. Trump can easily trigger a new collapse of the dollar at any moment.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There is absolutely nothing noteworthy among Monday's fundamental events. The European Central Bank meeting has already taken place, and the Bank of England and Federal Reserve meetings are scheduled for later, but they also carry no intrigue. Both central banks are expected to leave key interest rates unchanged with a 90% probability.

We believe the market still only cares about the ongoing trade war, which continues to escalate. The dollar's decline could continue if trade agreements with most countries are not signed before the grace period expires, which ends in about a month. The dollar may keep falling even without new tariffs from Trump, as the market's attitude toward the US president and his policies remains extremely negative. The International Trade Court decided to block Trump's tariffs, but on the same day, the Court of Appeals overturned this decision. Shortly afterward, it was announced that tariffs on steel and aluminum imports would be raised.

Conclusions:

On the first trading day of the new week, both currency pairs will trade based on technical factors. Low volatility and flat movement are possible since there will be no macroeconomic data that day.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.