It may seem that the dollar has done significant work to reverse the trend and more confidently continue rising against the yen, but in reality, it has only reached the upper boundary of the downward price channel that began on January 10. The price must consolidate above the 146.11 level for a medium-term upward move.

The Marlin oscillator on the daily timeframe has moved into positive territory, but its prolonged presence in a range (since May 27) raises doubts about the strength of the signal. The MACD line has slowed its decline but has not yet turned upward, so the risk of a price drop from the channel boundary remains significant.

Today, the Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision. This is an appropriate occasion for a strong movement from the bifurcation point. If the price moves downward, we expect it to reach the area where three lines intersect:

• The target level of 141.70 (lows from September 30 and August 5, 2024),
• The MACD -sen line, and
• The embedded line of the green price channel.

On the H4 chart, the price has slightly pulled back from the resistance zone formed by the highs of June 10 and 11. However, the development of both the price and the Marlin oscillator is occurring on growing bullish signs, so we await the formation of the expected reversal signal. That signal may come in the form of the price breaking through the MACD line around the 144.45 mark.