empty
21.04.2025 11:46 AM
Markets in limbo: awaiting next shock or revival

After the rollercoaster ride of early April, the US stock market seems to have come to a standstill. The S&P 500 is neither alive nor dead — it's starting to resemble Schrodinger's cat. All it would take is one shock event for the broad equity index to tumble back into bear-market territory. And a social media post by Donald Trump could be that event. This is a man whose words move trillions. Corporate America has never seen anything like it. Should we really be surprised by a spike in volatility?

S&P 500 volatility trends

This image is no longer relevant

There is a reason the S&P 500 has plunged and is now stuck, awaiting further guidance from the man in the White House. The Republican firebrand has impressed investors with bold talk of shifting from short-term pain to long-term prosperity for the US. However, no one knows how far Trump is willing to go. Will this pain spiral into a recession? Or could negotiations between Washington and foreign capitals ultimately lead to a rollback of tariffs?

Some Wall Street firms are starting to issue binary forecasts for the S&P 500. Crossmark Global Investments, for instance, says the index could plunge to 4,000 in the event of a recession, or soar to 5,800 if the US manages to avoid one.

The trouble is that if Trump follows through with his pledge to eliminate the US current account deficit, American equities could take a serious hit. Historically, US trade imbalances have tended to shrink during economic downturns.

US foreign trade dynamics as percentage of GDP

This image is no longer relevant

This stems from the fundamental link between the current and capital accounts in the balance of payments. When the current account is negative, capital flows into the US to offset the imbalance. However, as the deficit narrows, capital flows out, weakening the USD index and making investments in American equities less attractive. After all, what is the point in buying US stocks if the dollar is about to lose 30%?

The White House's efforts to rebalance trade through the largest tariffs seen since the early 20th century — along with demands that other nations boost US imports — will inevitably reduce foreign income, making those countries less able to buy US-issued stocks and bonds. This is a structural shift with the potential to trigger a serious pullback in the S&P 500.

This image is no longer relevant

Instead of pursuing a backup strategy, Donald Trump is making matters worse by going after Jerome Powell. If the Fed's independence is truly undermined, confidence in the US dollar could sink to historic lows, accelerating capital flight from the country.

Technically, a 1-2-3 reversal pattern may be taking shape on the daily chart of the S&P 500 — but for that to happen, bulls need to reclaim the inside bar. A break above the 5,325 high would trigger a buy signal. Conversely, a clean break below the 5,250 low would reopen the path for short positions.

Marek Petkovich,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Dólar americano: Previsão semanal

Nos Estados Unidos, como de costume, haverá eventos e notícias muito mais relevantes do que na zona do euro ou no Reino Unido. Os dados econômicos começam a ser divulgados

Chin Zhao 17:18 2025-06-09 UTC+2

Libra Britânica: Prévia semanal

No Reino Unido, o calendário de notícias da próxima semana será bem mais interessante, embora eu não acredite que isso vá impactar significativamente o sentimento do mercado. A libra continua

Chin Zhao 17:18 2025-06-09 UTC+2

Euro: prévia semanal

Tédio — puro e simples. É assim que a próxima semana se desenha para a moeda europeia. Desde já, é importante esclarecer que esta análise se concentra apenas no histórico

Chin Zhao 17:09 2025-06-09 UTC+2

O Bitcoin entra em conflito

A maior surpresa de junho foi a divergência entre os índices de ações dos EUA e as criptomoedas. O S&P 500 e o Bitcoin são normalmente considerados ativos de risco

Marek Petkovich 17:04 2025-06-09 UTC+2

O "velho" Donald, o lutador, parece estar se esgotando (há chances de crescimento contínuo nos contratos de CFDs #NDX e #SPX)

Apesar de todas as dificuldades, incertezas e da tensão generalizada no mercado, os índices de ações continuam a subir. Os investidores acreditam que Donald Trump terá de recuar

Pati Gani 16:39 2025-06-09 UTC+2

AUD/USD. Análise e previsão.

No início da nova semana de negociações, o par AUD/USD apresenta um impulso de alta consistente, recuperando-se de uma leve correção e aproximando-se novamente dos máximos registrados em novembro

Irina Yanina 16:23 2025-06-09 UTC+2

Relatório de emprego positivo sustenta o dólar canadense

A variação líquida do emprego em maio foi de +8,8 mil postos de trabalho, superando o crescimento registrado em abril e apresentando dados muito sólidos, especialmente em comparação

Kuvat Raharjo 16:11 2025-06-09 UTC+2

China e EUA dão um passo importante em direção à reconciliação

O euro e a libra recuperaram as perdas da última sexta-feira, retomando gradualmente o movimento de alta. Esse avanço é sustentado pela retomada das negociações entre os Estados Unidos

Jakub Novak 15:53 2025-06-09 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Análise e previsão

O par USD/JPY está apresentando uma fraqueza moderada nesta segunda-feira, caindo em direção ao nível psicológico de 144,00. A queda é impulsionada por uma combinação de fatores, incluindo o fortalecimento

Irina Yanina 14:38 2025-06-09 UTC+2

WTI - West Texas Intermediate. Análise e previsão

No início da nova semana, os preços do petróleo bruto West Texas Intermediate (WTI) estão tentando se manter próximos das máximas de sexta-feira. Altos funcionários dos EUA, incluindo o secretário

Irina Yanina 14:29 2025-06-09 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.