Bitcoin and Ethereum surged sharply after news emerged that Iran and Israel might halt their exchanges of strikes. U.S. President Donald Trump announced yesterday that Iran and Israel had agreed to a ceasefire; however, this information has not yet been officially confirmed. Nevertheless, it was enough for traders to buy risk assets, including Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Although unconfirmed, this news quickly generated a surge of optimism throughout the markets. Fatigued by ongoing geopolitical tensions, traders seized this opportunity to return to riskier assets. Bitcoin and Ethereum, as prominent representatives of the cryptocurrency world, quickly reacted to the change in sentiment, showing notable gains. However, such a market response requires cautious evaluation. The lack of official confirmation of a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel leaves significant room for speculation and potential disappointment. If Trump's statement is not backed by official declarations from the conflicting parties soon, there is a high probability of a correction, and risk assets may come under renewed pressure.

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on broadcaster X that there is no finalized ceasefire agreement but added that Iran "does not intend" to continue its strikes if Israel stops its attacks.

Even if a ceasefire is confirmed, its long-term impact on the markets remains uncertain. Bitcoin rose by 4.5% over the past 24 hours to $105,458, recovering from $99,500 earlier Monday. Ethereum showed an even stronger gain of 8.86%, reaching $2,424.50. Altcoin prices rose significantly on Monday—XRP increased 7.4% to $2.16, and Solana jumped 9.85% to $144.80.

Regarding intraday strategy, I will continue to rely on major pullbacks in Bitcoin and Ethereum as potential opportunities—anticipating that the medium-term bullish trend remains intact.

For short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are outlined below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today at an entry point near $106,100, with the aim of a rise toward $107,700. Around $107,700, I intend to exit long positions and sell on the pullback.

Before entering a breakout buy, confirm that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is in positive territory.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin can also be bought from the lower boundary at $105,000, assuming there is no market reaction to a downward breakout. The targets are $106,100 and $107,700.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today from the entry point near $105,000, aiming for a decline toward $103,100. Around $103,100, I'll exit short positions and immediately buy on the rebound.

Before entering a breakout sell, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is in negative territory.

Scenario #2: If there is no upward breakout, Bitcoin can also be sold from the upper boundary at $106,100, with targets back down to $105,000 and $103,100.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Ethereum today at an entry point near $2,446, targeting a rise to $2,503. Around $2,503, I will exit the long trade and sell on the rebound.

Before buying on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.

Scenario #2: Ethereum can also be bought from the lower boundary at $2,408, assuming no market reaction to a downward breakout, with targets at $2,446 and $2,503.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Ethereum today at an entry point near $2,408, aiming for a decline to $2,349. Around $2,349, I'll exit short positions and immediately buy on the rebound.

Before selling on a breakout, confirm that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is in negative territory.

Scenario #2: Ethereum can also be sold from the upper boundary at $2,446 if there is no upward breakout, targeting $2,408 and $2,349.