empty
09.06.2025 02:39 AM
EUR/USD. Weekly Preview. Inflation and More Inflation

The upcoming trading week will revolve around American inflation. In the United States, data will be published on the growth of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Producer Price Index (PPI), and the Consumer Sentiment Index calculated by the University of Michigan.

This image is no longer relevant

Of course, this is not an exhaustive list of macroeconomic reports, but these releases will stand out.

Monday

The trading week will begin with inflation data, not from the U.S. but from China. However, this report could still provoke volatility in the EUR/USD pair. Judging by the last two releases (March and April), China's economy is slipping into deflation, "thanks" to the new tariffs introduced by Donald Trump. China has not been able (and clearly won't be able in the near future) to replace American demand for its goods with domestic or other markets. As a result, goods that used to be shipped to the U.S. are gathering dust in warehouses, creating downward pressure on prices. (Incidentally, the downward inflation trend in the Eurozone is also partly due to this factor.) Added to that is weak domestic consumer demand in China.

According to forecasts, China's CPI is expected to remain in negative territory in May at -0.2%. Concerns about the world's second-largest economy will affect overall market sentiment. However, demand for the dollar is unlikely to increase because the U.S. economy also suffers from tariffs. As the world's largest net importer, the U.S. faces inflationary pressures amid an overall economic slowdown. Therefore, if China's report meets forecasts or comes in weaker, EUR/USD buyers will likely gain strength.

Tuesday

Tuesday's economic calendar does not feature many significant events that could impact the EUR/USD pair. The Sentix Investor Confidence Index will be published during the European session, reflecting investors' trust in the Eurozone economy. Since March 2022, it has been in negative territory, signaling investor pessimism. In May, it rose to -8.1 from -19.5. In June, it is expected to "rise" further to -6.0.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index will be published during the American session. This secondary macroeconomic indicator has declined for four months, reaching 95.8 in April. A slight uptick to 95.9 is expected in May. However, if the index continues to decline contrary to forecasts, it will create additional background pressure on the dollar amid a quiet economic calendar.

Wednesday

Probably the most important day of the week. Attention will focus on the U.S. CPI report released at the start of the American trading session.

According to most analysts, the annual CPI will accelerate to 2.5%. On the one hand, this is a modest increase from the previous month's 2.3%. On the other hand, the index had been declining for three months after peaking at 3% in January. The downward trend continued: 2.8% in February, 2.4% in March, and 2.3% in April. Thus, even a slight acceleration could trigger intense volatility in the EUR/USD pair.

The Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is also expected to rise to 2.9% after two months at 2.8%.

In theory, this result should support the dollar by pushing back the timing of the Federal Reserve's rate cut. However, the dollar is unlikely to benefit under current circumstances because a rising CPI may signal growing stagflation risks. The ISM Manufacturing PMI for May was 48.5, indicating continued contraction. Despite relatively decent Non-Farm Payrolls (though a 139K increase isn't exactly substantial), fears of a U.S. economic slowdown in Q2 remain. Therefore, even if CPI exceeds forecasts, it will likely be interpreted against the greenback.

Thursday

On Thursday, the U.S. will release another key inflation indicator—the PPI. Forecasts suggest the PPI will accelerate to 2.6% from 2.4%. However, the Core PPI, which has been declining for three months, is expected to further weaken to 3.0% in May from 3.1% in April.

The dollar will face additional pressure if the PPI comes in strong and the CPI meets or exceeds forecasts.

Friday

The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index will be published on June 13, the final trading day of the week. It had been falling for four months, reaching 52.2 in May. A slight increase to 52.5 is forecast for June. For dollar bulls, the index must not continue its downward trend.

Particular emphasis will also be placed on the University of Michigan's inflation expectations index. In April, this indicator jumped to 6.6% (the highest since 1981) and remained there in May. If inflation expectations rise again in June (no forecasts available yet), dollar bulls will react negatively due to renewed stagflation concerns.

Conclusions

Inflation reports could pressure the dollar if they indicate that both CPI and PPI are rising, especially against a backdrop of weakening ISM indices in manufacturing and services. Traders will also keep an eye on news about trade negotiations, though significant progress in U.S.-China and U.S.-EU talks is unlikely in the coming days.

Tensions between Donald Trump and Elon Musk could also influence EUR/USD, as escalating public conflict between these "giants" would negatively impact the dollar.

Technically, in the D1 timeframe, EUR/USD remains between the middle and upper Bollinger Bands and, above all, Ichimoku lines, which form a bullish "Parade of Lines" signal. All this favors long positions. Targets for the upward movement are 1.1450 (upper Bollinger Band on H4) and 1.1500 (upper Bollinger Band on D1).

Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 3 de julio. Jerome Powell finalmente respondió a Trump.

El par de divisas GBP/USD durante el miércoles se desplomó como una piedra. Sin embargo, cualquier caída del par siempre termina en un crecimiento mucho más fuerte. Por lo tanto

Paolo Greco 07:32 2025-07-03 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 3 de julio. Una gran ley de Trump aprobada, el dólar en mínimos de 4 años.

El par de divisas EUR/USD durante el miércoles se negoció de manera bastante tranquila, si es que se puede aplicar la palabra "tranquila" a la caída diaria del dólar

Paolo Greco 07:31 2025-07-03 UTC+2

Analisis del par GBP/USD. El 1 de julio. Trump el genio y los estadounidenses ciegos. Parte 2.

El par de divisas GBP/USD bajó moderadamente durante el lunes, lo cual no representa ningún problema para la moneda británica. La libra esterlina puede permitirse tranquilamente perder 100 o incluso

Paolo Greco 07:05 2025-07-01 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 1 de julio. Trump el genio y los estadounidenses ciegos. Parte 1.

El par de divisas EUR/USD continuó negociándose el lunes dentro de un rango extremadamente estrecho. El lunes hubo pocas noticias, y las que se publicaron no despertaron mayor interés entre

Paolo Greco 07:05 2025-07-01 UTC+2

El Bitcoin convierte a sus competidores en polvo

Expectativas y realidad. Los creadores de criptomonedas las concebían como un universo donde cualquier token podía competir por el dinero de los inversores. En la práctica, aparte del Bitcoin

Marek Petkovich 12:43 2025-06-30 UTC+2

Analisis del par GBP/USD. El 30 de junio. Nóminas no agrícolas, Powell y desempleo.

El par GBP/USD subió 300 puntos durante la semana pasada y, al parecer, no tiene intención de detenerse. Incluso el viernes, el precio no logró iniciar una corrección bajista

Paolo Greco 07:48 2025-06-30 UTC+2

Analisis del par EUR/USD. El 30 de junio. Inflación europea y nueva ronda de discursos de Lagarde.

El par de divisas EUR/USD continúa su movimiento ascendente durante cinco meses consecutivos. En este período, solo hemos visto algunas correcciones bajistas débiles, que cada vez terminaban con otra caída

Paolo Greco 07:48 2025-06-30 UTC+2

Analisis del par GBP/USD. El 27 de junio. La historia no se repite.

El par de divisas GBP/USD continuó su fuerte movimiento alcista durante el jueves. Desde el inicio de la semana, el dólar estadounidense ha perdido "solo" 330 puntos. Ya hemos mencionado

Paolo Greco 07:31 2025-06-27 UTC+2

Analisis del par EUR/USD. El 27 de junio. ¿Podrá Trump equilibrar la balanza comercial?

El par de divisas EUR/USD se encuentra en un "crecimiento libre" (por analogía con el concepto de "caída libre"). El dólar vuelve a precipitarse al abismo, tal como advertimos

Paolo Greco 07:31 2025-06-27 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 26 de junio. Se acerca el 9 de julio.

El par de divisas GBP/USD durante el miércoles al mediodía se mantuvo en el mismo lugar. Recordemos una antigua señal técnica. Si el precio actualiza un extremo significativo y luego

Paolo Greco 08:30 2025-06-26 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.